Three Years and Counting: Understanding Trump Foreign Policy

Trump before and after he took office, the prevailing public opinion was whether he’s got the right temperament to handle the office of the President. Even though it was the perception held by then out going President Obama. The issue of temperament have unfortunately dominated and saturated the mainstream media coverage of his three year and counting in office. With the recent publication of “Rage” by Bob Woodward, lots of question continue to swell around, especially considering the human toll associated with the pandemic. His perceived deception on the threat of the pandemic did not help either as it feeds into the temperament narrative. One must note, he is not your typical politician, his unorthodox approach makes his kind of populism a challenge to conventional states like America harder if not difficult to comprehend. But why after such an avalanche of accusation he still manages to have a job? A case like those that confronted him would have sank or swallowed any ordinary President-link to Russian election interference, thereafter soliciting from Ukraine dirt on his presumptive democratic opponent. Yet, all resulted in unsuccessful impeachment bid. America election though an internal matter of Americans, America is a world superpower and, what happens in America have immense international political bearing. As custodian of the status quo, America’s leadership demands acting accordingly. Since the leadership of Trump, immense shift have taken place in America’s foreign policy. The most recent being restriction placed on International Criminal Court (ICC). Though it comes as shocking yet not surprising. Others includes attack on alliances like NATO, to mention but a few. With respect to the ICC, as mentioned, it didn’t come as a surprise because America have never rectified the Treaty of its existence. Still, it points to a shift in America’s foreign policy as we expect it to be. Countries and continents have not been spared from Trump’s shakedown, Europe for instance have seen tariffs thrown their way. It is a cautionary tell from hard saber rattling that seems like an outright war from Iran to North Korea and recently China. Trump brought with him more or less a transaction approach to foreign policy in which thin line appears between friends and foes.

What can we make of such unusual approach in American foreign policy? Usually we look at National Security Strategy to dissect the direction in any given administration. This involves understanding what form of grand strategy it is pursuing or hopes to adopt. For instance, the administration of President Obama was known for his liberal internationalism-famous for its utility of multilateral institutions. America NSS revolves around three known grand strategy which includes; Primacy and Neo-isolationism as part of the trios. Trump from the look of things, have combined the two approach of both Neo-isolationism and Primacy. He’s managed to sieve through it, picking and choosing what would work for him. This is both fascinating and problematic. Fascinating because, he employs and discards at the same time, the hawks and moderate of both strategies as both winners and losers. The problematic because of the way he went about doing it. Above all, the usual benefit derived from established expertise were totally shunned or overlooked, creating an added spirit of discontent amongst those who would have wanted to play a part. His over reliance on new other than established and tested expertise comes with it challenges of predictability and continuity. 

On neo-isolationism, he manages to infuse elements of American nationalism-exceptionalism, as an ethos-the MAGA concept. Neo-isolationism as a strategy we must remember is built on anti-alliance. For the established expertise whom have managed decade long American foreign policy, this is utter nonsense. The general belief is that America’s strength is stronger within and among alliances membership. Trump seems to differ, his perception of alliances is that it is burdensome, one sided,  alliance benefits the weak and weakens the strong. This actually is the prescriptive approach of neo-isolationism, whereby the emphasis is on America’s needs and interests convergence. 

Primacy, as another grand strategy, speaks to preponderance of power, counterbalancing as opposed to outright challenge, because other outlays of power knows where the power lays. This is to remain and maintain preeminence of power. Understanding the lose nature of today’s power from unipolarity to multipolarity requires a strong America. An America that is not bugged down through military adventurism and commitments-policeman of the world. Understanding this requires repurposing commitment and importantly withdrawal from long foreign military engagement. This eliminates distraction, overstretched and constraining effect on its military. This can helps America refocus more adapting to important geopolitical competition.

How he manages to navigate through this two separate strategies is something of great interest. He fuses the idea of burden sharing with increased military budget among alliance,  although a long overdue response by threatening to pull away, with the hope of achieving the conceptual ideals within offshore balancing. This way, America can achieve the ultimate goal of not fighting every war but acting as a strong pillar to existing alliance that can sustain the status quo, therefore eliminating full entanglement. The pace with which he completed among others ongoing wars in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan points to this fact thereby, repurposing American hard power, though not everyone would agree with him especially within the established policyholders. 

Furthermore, on primacy, he’s moved to challenge China. China was identified as America’s threat in modern era. Russia, isn’t much of a greater threat compared to what China represents. The critical question within this analysis might give better insight, If Russia doesn’t pose much of a challenge given existing Western imposed isolation, the West is caught in the middle while doing business with China whom as it stands has seen Russia orbit towards. Having stated the above, Western isolation of Russia makes no sense as it present a much more dangerous path toward western security arrangement. Also because  Russia in bed with China is a nightmare the west can barely overlook. While courting China and dispersing Russia makes no sense, it makes for better sense rather than achieving long standing fear, a self fulfilling prophecy-China and Russians working together. This was the ultimate achievement of the Cold War era policy which is in reverse. 

More so, the growth of China both economically and militarily adds to the cause for alarm since Chinese intentions much as they are hidden are a great threat towards sustaining the status quo. Russia’s revisionist desire, have long been made clear by Kremlin so is no longer as hidden an agenda. Russia and China share one thing in common as argued by Friedman .T, “feelings of humiliation and questing for dignity.” They can be ascribed as new imperialist which challenge the existing system. For these reason, restraining China, means Russia could be weaken, and for Trump it is a gamble worth taking. Unfortunately, it means undoing what was achieved during the Cold War, to weaken Russia the West courted China. China grew out of the goodness of the West. They starved off Russia economically while dealing with it politically and managed to win the Cold War. The reality is, China as a hybrid of Cold War era, with strong economic muscles isn’t going to be a push around into today’s global politics. 

By managing to separate economic from politics, Trump have placed much of the burden of economics on Chinese threat. By going after big Chinese company, he raised the bar too high for these individual company to bear additional consequence on choice they make. This makes the issue bordering on decoupling much a heavy consequence to those selected companies other than the country. In actual fact, Trump aims to feed into the gains made by China as a whole over the years. It carries with it smart sanction rather than wholesale effect on China as a country. By picking on these few companies, China is forced at bargaining as country on how it conducts business to remain relevant in global economics. We can see the ripple effects brought about by countries scrutinizing Chinese businesses. Most recently, India have rained in on as many as 100 Chinese software applications and other countries have started looking at Huawei critically. Although these action have raised the specter of nationalism around the world as in the case of India and also America, nonetheless, it falls into geopolitical competition from a multi layer dimension in today’s global engagement. 

On Trumps action in the Middle East, it is part of grand strategy of primacy. The carte blanch granted to Israel on possibility of legitimizing annexation have seen shift in attitude among some Arab states. Although it can still be viewed as raining in on Iran malign behavior. The alliance of Gulf states can become a form of offshore balancing for America. The recently signed Abraham accord opens up closer relationships between Israel/United Arab Emirate and other Arab states. UAE and Bahrain are now among four Arab states -Egypt and Jordan to recognize Israeli statehood while UAE on the other hand, have recently welcomed direct flight from Israel. This sign was greeted with enthusiasm Albright and Hadley who described it as “strategy is worth embracing.” Overall it falls into a vision of Trump’s America Middle East outpost. 

To then understand Trump foreign policy as indicated above, requires multi prong, octopus mind boggling and dissecting approach for his three year and counting in office. He is your unconventional politician-not the typical but one with wide mouth, Twitter foreign policy guru. Others tried to copy him but failed, because he is a one man politician. Though risky given it’s unpredictability in international politics, so far he’s managed to avoid war. He’s courted enmity with establishment, whose singularity approach are as opposed to multiplicity of any sort. Can he successfully pull the election? I wasn’t surprised by the way he won the last time because I predicted to my friends to watch that guy’s space. This is as far as I can get. He’s proven his critics wrong by diving into Israel-the whole Middle East issue, and China too. If his current Israeli success stands, and China fumbles he wins. If either one fails he puts his reputation on the line, and if neither stands, he would have proven that international politics is not for the faint hearted. It is a gamble which so far he has weathered. For Trump and his American dream, it is a fight to maintain the status quo and starve off imperialism by other means. This said, Trump has no appetite for war. This brings the Thucydides trap into sharp focus. Would Trump with Xi avoid such trap? It all depends on how Trump manages the Taiwan issue amid other escalating situation both in South China Sea and related trade dispute. I predict there could only be economic spheric dispute which could avert direct military confrontation. The world has changed since the peloponnesian war, the inclusion of nuclear weapon, means countries would do everything to avoid direct warfare. But make no mistake, miscalculation can heighten possibility of war. At the moment, all Trump wants is to bring the worst out from China, maybe the rest of the world can take note or follow in his footsteps on raining in on China. This is evident from the framing of the pandemic and trade dispute respectively. Either way, they play to his political audience at home while setting out his vision of the world he perceives. Time we read it as it is.

Celestine Chidi

The Truth, what Truth?

The world of man is construct of lies he himself has made, who knows the truth? Man is split, between what was given to him by the Owner and what he knows. He figures the mind of Him, does what he thinks would impress Him. Man’s construct are what they are, imaginative supreme, and, in so doing sets his world on a path that leads to nothingness. Man is a figment of his own happiness, what he desires he grabs, these to him represents the truth he thinks he seeks. What is the truth? If what he knows is confusing and what he doesn’t know, no less than what is known. Who owns the truth? The truth was, is and would forever hunt man, for he finds comfort on that which is antithetical to what ought to be. We dangle in a world we co-create. I like the word bubble, when it bursts, life is exposed. 

Morgan Brown

Imagine! Pandemic cost

Imagine we had been warned on time when this pandemic first emerged. While the country of origin prevented people from boarding and arriving. We won’t be where we are.

Imagine if airport and cruise ships have been more forth coming than business as usual, boarding and disembarking as they please, many people wouldn’t have died on cruise ship, let alone carrying it with them.

Imagine if the various port have been sealed off on time and hard quarantine introduced from the onset-for travelers, medics employed to manage port of entry and assist those in quarantine, a lot more could have been foreseen but were not.

Imagine if China had been cutoff like Liberia and other West African states way back then-epicenter of Ebola, just to save life’s of those who today are part of a statistics. Forget prejudice but basic fact of life. For every Life matters too.

Imagine till there is nothing more to think about. But as we sit in various lockdown-hard or soft, quarantine, distance, sanitize, hear it to save life. Don’t forget, the king of Pop once wore a mask. 2020 could just be an imagination, yet real. Never dreamt of it like this, reality is, just do your best. 

Morgan Brown

Is it Spring Yet?

A leap into something new. Is it spring yet? For I see flowers blooming, highlighting newness again. Is it spring yet? The last one didn’t end well where it started. Gadafi left and his people felt nothing but bitterness of winter, the desire for spring came with pain, nothing new from a wishlist. Promise vanish like thin air, with explosive greeting, as morning dew. Look at Syria, talk-less of Egypt, for Algeria may have been spared hash realities of coming winter when wishes were for spring. Europe felt the spring, from Spain to Scandinavia, spring of migration but she shrugged it off. Now it’s headed to the USA, but winter is not over or it spring yet? Would she survive yellow vest track, coming and going, a surge spared by the winter of pandemic. Would this turn out like a Hong Kong plague eaten off by one country two system in pandemic time. Is it spring yet? For the death of Mr Floyd seems to have brought spring closer than we imagined in the middle but surely not end of a winter. 

Celestine Chidi

What comes after the pandemic? Surely the elites shall not be part of it.

The pandemic have not just exposed us to the shambolic effect of elite cluelessness in leadership or lack of vision but most importantly, of how it has endangered our collective immunity to tolerance of their bad effect. How long shall this continue? The image of our fellow brothers and sisters in many African states queuing up, fighting while begging for handout during this period has shown, how collectively we have failed in our vision for a stable continent not to talk of statehood. From the various regions that make up the collective georegion of our Political concave, the story is just the same. What has actually happened for us to get to this point? We sold our collective right to few individuals who have made it a duty to benefit from our woes, defrauded our cognitive ability and left us vulnerable. This story is the same, everywhere in the continent as politician make promises, that can’t be fulfilled yet, we fail to hold them to account simply because our tolerance level is so high. Even when pressed against the wall, we hardly fight back but rather break the wall to give them enough space. Here we are today, as experiments in a lab of trial and error. Like Friedman sums it using Trump analogy: “Trump talks like China, envies Sweden, prepares for neither and insist that his strategy is superior to both.” This is how our response in the pandemic can be summarily explained. We have become victims of change and continuity simply because, our lapses gives room for same outcome. 

How prepared are we for what is to come?

It is projected that death would increase and poverty would grow just from this pandemic alone. We have been dying even before this but please don’t get me wrong. This is an opportunity for change and not continuity as we know it before. Are we prepared for it? Fellow Africans, our national elites have failed us and it is time we reclaim our space, if ever we hope to come out of this pandemic a better humanity. It is time we stand up for our right and ask that we be treated rightfully as bonafide citizens of this beautiful continent. Not just the touch and go of the past but fully invested to decide the fate, our fate,for it is about our lives and those of the future generation, not for the few rich, the elite whose failures we have fallen victim. The elite who take pride and benefits from our woes, who have made it a duty to ride on our, forgive me for this- collective amnesia as they would like to ridiculously refer to us. We play dumb not because we are afraid to act, we are a people with immense respect and unimaginable level of tolerance yet it cannot be business as usual. Tolerance has limit, so too is amnesia, for sometimes the rush of memory is all we need. Many diseases has been plaguing the continent some would say-Ebola, malaria even poverty itself. It only took a single act for Arab spring to unravel the northern part of our continent and beyond, never forget that. 

What can be done?

The statement “am an African” is a vision that aligns us to working as a collective, in solidarity with who, where, and when the need arises. It is not today’s vision but has unfortunately become a vision without tooth, a tooth without the jaw. It is a fragmented vision, rational though, yet remain an elitist project- spectacle of top-down chatter without vision or ambition. It is propaganda that has overwhelmingly failed to enroll the poorest of the poor, a vision shrouded in mystery. It is time, the people lead the course and cause the elite to listen. No people can be free if the least amongst them is in shackle. Government must work for all, for what is good for the goose is good for the gander. African leaders have prided themselves not in service to their people but rather have made the people servants of the leaders. Most have prided themselves visiting foreign hospitals for checkups while the poor are left to deal with broken down hospitals beds. Fighting for their life’s in limited life support machines, if ever they are working. These are not rocket science, it is simple mathematics of doing what is right. A leader remains a servant. But they have misspelt politics to mean policing, because they feel the people are beyond redemption and without an ability of reasoning. This is not a revolution against the current political class but of a thinking minds, the collective involvement of the people to choices that can leads to a better life for all. It is calls for and involves thinking on how to revive ourselves from the ruins of the select few who have played us for a fool and placed us all in danger. The elite have failed us ones again, the pandemic has expose them as shams and we are without vision as to where we may land. It is time for a more common African promise that is simple and understandable to all. 

How can this be done?

We need to put aside our nationalist sentiments, which is a convenient tool deployed at will as cover for political failures and we must wear a solidarity mask. The mask should be symbolic, not only does it prevent us from contracting future disease through fail policy, it is a tool in our hands to prevent others from contracting the disease-disease spread through political hate, incompetence, ineptitude and other political vices. Hate divides, incompetence and ineptitude shreds our collective immunity. This is how, the people’s power become captured if they fail to take action. We must dare to dream starting now, for what happens post the pandemic must show repurposing for change rather than continuity as we know it-as though nothing ever happened.  

This continent was conceived with a people but has so far been led without the people in mind. It is time we turn the tide against those who feel, we are just a pawn. 

Celestine Chidi

Collective suicide? Leadership Before, During and After Pandemic.

One of the common features of this time, is the absence of global leadership as an effectual hope in crisis period. The current international order is lead by United States of America. Coming out of the destruction of WW11, America lead an international order to restore sanity, with UN and subsequently other institutions that emerged. Let the truth be said, no other country could have pulled it better than they did because they had the skill then to make it succeed. Without ignoring other countries effort, it is collective after all, kudos to everyone who played a part. 

Fast forward to current crisis which for many people in their 50s and 60s, have never seen a thing like this before. The Spanish flu virus happened in 1918-1919, whereas, the great depression was in the 1930. So for the 50s and 60s year of age, they have a lot not to wish for. I can tell you, the coronavirus pandemic would be one of those, whether in this part of the world or elsewhere. Although we have long faced crisis with greater immense consequences. This coronavirus to so many, tests more like the last supper. Malaria and hunger kills so many but never have they lead to such potential economic disaster with total lockdown. It happened at a time when leadership is missing or have long been missed. I wish to borrow from one of the many people I greatly admire, Dr T.L Friedman, he said “In a time of crisis, like we are in now, with people feeling frightened and uncertain, leadership doesn’t just matter more. It matters exponentially more.” 

Many African states have endured many years living in crisis mood as indicated above. But most challenging of them all is the quality of leadership we have come to dwell with. Of course, someone would say, speak for yourself. But the reality is, the many years before this current crisis emerged, other continent have bought us enough time to prepare for moment like this. What do I mean? Many of our leaders past and present have had the opportunity at one time to interact with their peers outside of the continent. Many have also been opportune to, borrow from such policy if those were possible, study from it to help them formulate their own policy. Most of our continent leaders are western trained. This begs the question; what have we actually learn in such interaction or engagement to help our respective countries?

Africa is so rich with natural resources, yet many of its citizens live below poverty line. The arrival of this pandemics have laid bare what was long hiding in our mist. We are aware of it but however, we remain unprepared further down history. Paraphrasing the words of T.L Friedman, this pandemic flow into every tiny corner and pore and expose every weakness or strength in our society: how much trust we have in our government; how much social trust exists in our community to enable collaboration. This is another reason to examine what constitutes our strength for our success. They are doomed, who do not learn from history. This is the situation we face right? I can tell you, it is. 

During the pandemic, most African countries have to go the mean root of total lockdown without considerable thought to the potential aftermath. Many countries were ill prepared in so many ways. No adequate facilities in existing hospitals, actually no social security is ever in existence. People were lockdown without adequate resources to mitigate or cushion the effect of such lockdown. Government alone can not solve all social ill and requires coordination. But cooperation and coordination comes from existing trust. In the absence of these, what achievement can can possibly be? One can only hope, for “we cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself.” It is surprising I have to borrow from Trump to make a point. It shows leaders come in different size and shape. Saying that may resonate with us even though we disagree. But here in the continent, it is going to be worse.

By the end of this crisis, many people would have been rack by the pandemic not of their lives but their livelihood. Poverty whatever it may be is sure to grow pass the point were it was before the pandemic. Another opportunity for dependency on hand out to grow at lowest strata in our society. Other issues would result to tighter security heavy handed approach. An opportunity too for self messiahs to emerge and take advantage of our collective woes. This is going to be a long stretch and a repeat of a very bad movie. We have seen this before, it is collective suicide because we were never prepare for whats ahead.

I have stopped saying, God help us, because He has given us enough wisdom. These word of Fareed Zakaria is to important to be ignored, “We need leaders who take responsibility and make choices, informed deeply by science but also by economics, politics, ethics and other disciplines. Just as war is too important to be left to the generals, pandemics are too important to be left to the scientists.” Hope the lessons that is drawn, shall form part of the learning, and many countries in the continent would be up to the task when next Mother Nature calls. This isn’t going to be the last for such an events, we have destroyed nature, and leadership more than ever is needed to rebuild 

From Celestine Chidi

Gamers in Musical Chair

Who plays such music that these chimps dance to? In such cacophonous sounds, hiding behind with their bellies protruding. Hissing to music like snakes would do with split spitting tongues. Do they know what they are doing? Someone should get a mask or we may all be infected. They are not speaking in tongues of course... I hold my breath for this. For large potbellies stand between their head, and the lower part of what is left to be called a body. Their stomach acting better than their brain. Sorry Sir, I didn’t mean to say what I saw. The oozes from their month, hmmm! You can’t wait to wash with clean clothes.

Who handed the baton to those mopping fools? Standing up in lazy forms, disgusting with your fake smiles. Waving goodbye while the office files burns. Of course, what will it benefit them for the fireman to use his hose. For they have signed us off again, to the dungeon of death-rows. Whilst the paper trails goes down in flame, alleluia kumbaya is their chorus choice. For their masters word leads them to nodding frenzy- tokay gecko. Your symphonous sound of loot is from a poor widows shelf. Shame on you, Zombies of the upper house. 

Oh! Who did this to you? Indiana Jones stole all the gold, the skulls, robbing even barebones of the dead, but you, you had to  more and plus, even starving kiddies, malnourished in their mother’s womb have not been spared. See them drive off in posh cars to the gratitude of their soul. Don’t you have conscience to turn to? Must you loose even the qualms of it.

Why should I care? My pen is all I have got. Zombies of yes chamber, Feel for the ones who sent you there, for those attires have long lost the appeals of new found state. Everyday feels the same here, hyenas from the same breed, roaming this weird wide west like nothing to offer. Seeking only to devour than to spare.

UnFolding Metamorphosis

The reality of life has changed. What we use to take for granted now counts. Six feet! Words filled and formed in-transition to the other side. Now it is a living testament by distant empathy taken in every day encounter. 

Life is not what it used to be. We move around looking at each other as though, could be the one, making the six feet both a lived and after thought. Viruses spewed in ignorance. 

Fear has taken its toll on us, yet distancing makes the sorrow go round. Care and fear, life and death. None could stand to be compared. For what we took for granted now matters, never did we think it may come to this. Herein we are and there it is. Life that roared has turn to whispers.

What is life if all that beholds it is but fear. Everywhere you look, the sting of death comforts itself, for the dead die...alone and buried by strangers while their love ones shelter, yes shelter for they might be next in line, not of inheritance. The brut of death hangs just around and not too far. 

Would the courage of man by fear be ruined? For death was there before man can be. Death, the manifestation of the still unknown. For man by nature, a mortal being and life shall not cease nor ruined by fear. The living man is not dead yet, six feet is but, however it maybe, a reflection of reality in this sojourn. The body maybe weak but the spirit, yes the spirit must remain strong for what may still to come. Show love though from a distant, let the breathe of life saturate the poisonous clouds soaked in this death. 

Mother Nature at her best again. Still, the comforting hug of departed robe in console be, to fill the emptiness from deep within. May the whispers of the priest, the final touch to a dying soul keep heavens door open. Therein lay, the constant contact that make the world round. Hope better life is revealed after all this said and gone.

Democracy gone Rogue or is it South? Bandwagon mentality.

When we look around the world as the pandemic racks people life, economy and most importantly freedom, one common feature is what we hear or see on television; lockdown from small, medium and large country democratic or autocratic, North or South. It shows this coronavirus pandemic doesn’t look any country in the eye, it ravages as it goes, as far as it can, if by chance you were caught sleeping on duty. The last word is what matters, ‘sleeping on duty.’ Where we caught napping? The word North and South, highlights the socio-characterization of our divided world or countries. Wherein the north is the rich and developed, the south is the semi-developed and or poverty stricken states. Back to the topic, democracy gone rogue or is it South?

The choice of this topic is driven in part by what I observe and can be termed bandwagon mentality that characterized various countries response to the pandemic. It is true it came as a sudden shock but we cannot deny that actions in China never happened in realtime. One thing that’s common is the near total level of lockdown that is implemented, only a few countries decided against it, Sweden. But the one thing that got me thinking is, the adoption of autocratic approach to an issue that is not humans cause but human victim (this can be debated if emotions don’t run amok)-deployment of military for law enforcement purpose in democratic countries is worrisome. According to Maas (German foreign Minister) “China has taken some very authoritarian measures.”

Wait a minute, China did it, now Italy has taken a leaf, and so did Spain, and so also a whole host of other countries did so too. If Nigeria, Pakistan adopts such an approach, I can understand because there has been long simmering issues on the ground. I avoided mentioning a host of other countries because time and space is of essence, anyway it did not surprise me. 

What can caused such heavy handed approach in democracy? I don’t want to say it. Say it! Ok! Here is my thinking as raw as it can get. At a point in time, the people stopped listening to their government because they feel, these guys are a bunch of ‘A...h, these politician are actually taking chances. We the people are their labs, where they conduct test. It is the lab of politicians opinion against the popular saying “government of the people, by the people, and for the people.” Why should we trust them? 

In France, on the eve of his maiden address, Mr Macron the president termed the pandemic invisible enemy. For that reason, he deploys the army. In the world biggest democracy, India, after a day of trial, the next move by the government without prior notice was total lockdown. In Italy, after weeks of indecision, when the Chinese finally arrived, the government decides to deploy the army to enforce lockdown. Spain also did the same. From the above analogy, one thing is very clear, trust is missing. The description of the pandemic as our “war” with an “invisible enemy,” Thomas L, Friedman says such imagery of “war metaphor is wrong and misleading.” This has lead to over handedness on many democratic, quasi democratic and authoritarian states, turning the pandemic into power grabbing opportunity. When democracy stops trusting that the people who entrusted power to a select few can think and support a given agenda for the benefit of the whole, democracy dies. Trust deficit leading to questions of legitimacy is the beginning to a much bigger problem in a democracy. Democracy cannot point fingers of success in autocratic state as a pretext for its actions. 

In democracy leaders are representatives of the people. All actions and decisions must be align with the desire of the people. In autocratic states, leaders lord it over their subject. In democracy we entrust the affairs of the state in the hands of a select few representatives. Humans we must remember will always be human. If we fail to keep adequate tab on their actions, we might pay a heavy price. From military deployment to use of technology to monitor us? The growing trend on facial recognition as apparatus for deployment should be concerning. South Korea, it is reported intends to keep up extensive testing and vigorous contact-tracing using security-camera footage, credit-card statements and mobile-phone location data. South Korea is different from China we are meant to reason but human nature is not science that can be work out in the lab to decide what are their motivation. What happens when such mechanisms is misused? Reasons to be vigilant. As government around the world tries to maintain control both by directing and framing the narrative, a dangerous trend might be brewing, surveillance and law. This is no longer a tool in the hands of autocrats even democracy are taking a leaf out of it to advance their social causes as a practice. A reason to watch and act, I didn’t say pray. These can be democracy gone rogue or south. 

In this contested space of power, state verses the people, anything can go wrong. When democracy dies the people suffer. So it is of essence to question, don’t just trust, sometimes doubt can yield some positive outcome as people in authority start to question themselves. We need to preserve this hard won battle of freedom. 

Realism never died: coronavirus is what States make of it.

With the end of Cold War came the unfortunate marginalization of theory that gave us a glimpse to what nation state really is. The implosion of constructivism as a paradigm right after this event, followed the accusation on realism for not predicting, but focusing on the prescriptive aspect to international relations. It is a big blow to students of realism. But nation state would be what it is, regardless of norms and structures that they develop. History has never misread what nation states does for living-survival. With all the talk of modernity, the recent pandemic proves history can be repeated, instinct for survival when it kicks in, it is survival of the fittest baby. Norms and institutions take the back sit, just like much of realism were made to, when constructivism carries the day in extrapolating how institution modifies states. Many new students of politics became migrants, assimilating much of the teachings of constructivist, being the savior of what political studies should be. Power politics still persist.

Less focus was given to what nation state really is, there was even talk that nation states would die a natural death. The logic reads that, non state actors would play a more active role in traditional functions of state, international organizations would represent the fora for commonality of behaviors. This was the ideal scientific man coined by Hans Morgenthau, the norm abiding gobblish that misread interest. Actually, norm entrepreneurship in current condition means States are never short of ‘up to something,’ tendency. States thinks scientifically of course but acts in real time. Great power competition aside, this new pandemic occurred at a very bad time, subduing cooperation, highlighting competition that breeds anarchy.

Universality of belief in norm eschews individuality and attendant anarchy in pursuit of general interest, this is idealistic utopianism.    

Wendt thinking revolves on the idea that changing the social construction of anarchy, can thereby obviate the worry that our neighbors will become our bedding partner. Lovers do kill remember. This is a world in which good agent thinks for everyone’s need since they know what is best to everyone, but these agents faces messy internal interests. This situation warrants the question, can there be fair judge and prosecutor occupying the same sit? Haven’t we been there before? Bear in mind “anarchy is what states makes of it. States are more than the scientific man, reality check. They don’t observe ordinances when their interest are at stake, they rather work around them and where if possible make it work for them. From individual states within European Union response to Italy in need, to Turkey and China directing companies to stop export. These are states hoarding pandemic essential at a time of crisis for national interest. It is sorrow go round, we see this both in big, small states, modern, backward states. While on this, much of realism went on hiatus as I stated earlier. But the outcome of current world affair points us back to where we are in today’s world. 

State never really died, they were hibernating, waiting for the winter chill to pass by. States during the coronavirus pandemic have proven that, “old soldier never dies.” Basic facts about realism taken for granted. These are the silent characteristics exhibited by states when cooperation demands eschewing interest for common good. The nation state of Westphalia imagined, resurfaces, reestablishes and even waxed stronger. States act in accordance to perceived interest as a given right. The core insight, phrased by Hans Morgenthau, is that “we must see the world as it is, rather than as we want it to be” this is also true about nation state. That some states in modern times were being characterized as acting like mafias or modern day pirates is testament to reality. Where is the norms and structure meant to guide against life against the jungle? Anarchy is part of states construction, we cannot pretend that all is good that ends badly. From deployment of the military personal on the streets in peacetime against unimaginably foe, to use of war time imagery, words and action to achieve a common message, am back again in control. The virus is nation state framing of war image to maintain sovereignty from invading enemy. Hmmm! The only mental explanation while the pandemic runs amok. Does the state ever accept failure? This is why accountability is required after all said and done.

In conclusion, the return of classical realism shall be relief, its points us to states action and possible reaction. The basic fact of life is if we fail to understand the state, we may forever be shocked when similar event is repeated. The Westphalian architecture of Hobbesian state means, realism would never dies. 

By Celestine Chidi

Forget! is all what they say to us.

They wanted us to forget that this ever happened. But how could we, when no one is held to account. We know there was war and many sides,lies led to it, still the issues remain unattended, to be grasped. While the bomb rained down on our innocents, even the younger ones were not spared of those evil deed. May their souls rest while justice we seek. My people live with those indelible, scared from inside out, anger lives right inside, yet each acts as though it is water underneath the bridge. We live on, It lives on. Deep within it bubbling on, like a ticking time bomb it awaits to explode. We can no longer ignore our past for we were made from it forced to accept, ‘no victor, no vanquish.’ Just because the bygone days should remain in the yester-years, those unexpected would someday unravel right before us. For the many souls-millions of uncounted souls,lost and forgotten, our ancestors ask that the living stay sharply attentive.

50years after Nigerian/Biafran War, many issues remain unresolved.