Three Years and Counting: Understanding Trump Foreign Policy

Trump before and after he took office, the prevailing public opinion was whether he’s got the right temperament to handle the office of the President. Even though it was the perception held by then out going President Obama. The issue of temperament have unfortunately dominated and saturated the mainstream media coverage of his three year and counting in office. With the recent publication of “Rage” by Bob Woodward, lots of question continue to swell around, especially considering the human toll associated with the pandemic. His perceived deception on the threat of the pandemic did not help either as it feeds into the temperament narrative. One must note, he is not your typical politician, his unorthodox approach makes his kind of populism a challenge to conventional states like America harder if not difficult to comprehend. But why after such an avalanche of accusation he still manages to have a job? A case like those that confronted him would have sank or swallowed any ordinary President-link to Russian election interference, thereafter soliciting from Ukraine dirt on his presumptive democratic opponent. Yet, all resulted in unsuccessful impeachment bid. America election though an internal matter of Americans, America is a world superpower and, what happens in America have immense international political bearing. As custodian of the status quo, America’s leadership demands acting accordingly. Since the leadership of Trump, immense shift have taken place in America’s foreign policy. The most recent being restriction placed on International Criminal Court (ICC). Though it comes as shocking yet not surprising. Others includes attack on alliances like NATO, to mention but a few. With respect to the ICC, as mentioned, it didn’t come as a surprise because America have never rectified the Treaty of its existence. Still, it points to a shift in America’s foreign policy as we expect it to be. Countries and continents have not been spared from Trump’s shakedown, Europe for instance have seen tariffs thrown their way. It is a cautionary tell from hard saber rattling that seems like an outright war from Iran to North Korea and recently China. Trump brought with him more or less a transaction approach to foreign policy in which thin line appears between friends and foes.

What can we make of such unusual approach in American foreign policy? Usually we look at National Security Strategy to dissect the direction in any given administration. This involves understanding what form of grand strategy it is pursuing or hopes to adopt. For instance, the administration of President Obama was known for his liberal internationalism-famous for its utility of multilateral institutions. America NSS revolves around three known grand strategy which includes; Primacy and Neo-isolationism as part of the trios. Trump from the look of things, have combined the two approach of both Neo-isolationism and Primacy. He’s managed to sieve through it, picking and choosing what would work for him. This is both fascinating and problematic. Fascinating because, he employs and discards at the same time, the hawks and moderate of both strategies as both winners and losers. The problematic because of the way he went about doing it. Above all, the usual benefit derived from established expertise were totally shunned or overlooked, creating an added spirit of discontent amongst those who would have wanted to play a part. His over reliance on new other than established and tested expertise comes with it challenges of predictability and continuity. 

On neo-isolationism, he manages to infuse elements of American nationalism-exceptionalism, as an ethos-the MAGA concept. Neo-isolationism as a strategy we must remember is built on anti-alliance. For the established expertise whom have managed decade long American foreign policy, this is utter nonsense. The general belief is that America’s strength is stronger within and among alliances membership. Trump seems to differ, his perception of alliances is that it is burdensome, one sided,  alliance benefits the weak and weakens the strong. This actually is the prescriptive approach of neo-isolationism, whereby the emphasis is on America’s needs and interests convergence. 

Primacy, as another grand strategy, speaks to preponderance of power, counterbalancing as opposed to outright challenge, because other outlays of power knows where the power lays. This is to remain and maintain preeminence of power. Understanding the lose nature of today’s power from unipolarity to multipolarity requires a strong America. An America that is not bugged down through military adventurism and commitments-policeman of the world. Understanding this requires repurposing commitment and importantly withdrawal from long foreign military engagement. This eliminates distraction, overstretched and constraining effect on its military. This can helps America refocus more adapting to important geopolitical competition.

How he manages to navigate through this two separate strategies is something of great interest. He fuses the idea of burden sharing with increased military budget among alliance,  although a long overdue response by threatening to pull away, with the hope of achieving the conceptual ideals within offshore balancing. This way, America can achieve the ultimate goal of not fighting every war but acting as a strong pillar to existing alliance that can sustain the status quo, therefore eliminating full entanglement. The pace with which he completed among others ongoing wars in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan points to this fact thereby, repurposing American hard power, though not everyone would agree with him especially within the established policyholders. 

Furthermore, on primacy, he’s moved to challenge China. China was identified as America’s threat in modern era. Russia, isn’t much of a greater threat compared to what China represents. The critical question within this analysis might give better insight, If Russia doesn’t pose much of a challenge given existing Western imposed isolation, the West is caught in the middle while doing business with China whom as it stands has seen Russia orbit towards. Having stated the above, Western isolation of Russia makes no sense as it present a much more dangerous path toward western security arrangement. Also because  Russia in bed with China is a nightmare the west can barely overlook. While courting China and dispersing Russia makes no sense, it makes for better sense rather than achieving long standing fear, a self fulfilling prophecy-China and Russians working together. This was the ultimate achievement of the Cold War era policy which is in reverse. 

More so, the growth of China both economically and militarily adds to the cause for alarm since Chinese intentions much as they are hidden are a great threat towards sustaining the status quo. Russia’s revisionist desire, have long been made clear by Kremlin so is no longer as hidden an agenda. Russia and China share one thing in common as argued by Friedman .T, “feelings of humiliation and questing for dignity.” They can be ascribed as new imperialist which challenge the existing system. For these reason, restraining China, means Russia could be weaken, and for Trump it is a gamble worth taking. Unfortunately, it means undoing what was achieved during the Cold War, to weaken Russia the West courted China. China grew out of the goodness of the West. They starved off Russia economically while dealing with it politically and managed to win the Cold War. The reality is, China as a hybrid of Cold War era, with strong economic muscles isn’t going to be a push around into today’s global politics. 

By managing to separate economic from politics, Trump have placed much of the burden of economics on Chinese threat. By going after big Chinese company, he raised the bar too high for these individual company to bear additional consequence on choice they make. This makes the issue bordering on decoupling much a heavy consequence to those selected companies other than the country. In actual fact, Trump aims to feed into the gains made by China as a whole over the years. It carries with it smart sanction rather than wholesale effect on China as a country. By picking on these few companies, China is forced at bargaining as country on how it conducts business to remain relevant in global economics. We can see the ripple effects brought about by countries scrutinizing Chinese businesses. Most recently, India have rained in on as many as 100 Chinese software applications and other countries have started looking at Huawei critically. Although these action have raised the specter of nationalism around the world as in the case of India and also America, nonetheless, it falls into geopolitical competition from a multi layer dimension in today’s global engagement. 

On Trumps action in the Middle East, it is part of grand strategy of primacy. The carte blanch granted to Israel on possibility of legitimizing annexation have seen shift in attitude among some Arab states. Although it can still be viewed as raining in on Iran malign behavior. The alliance of Gulf states can become a form of offshore balancing for America. The recently signed Abraham accord opens up closer relationships between Israel/United Arab Emirate and other Arab states. UAE and Bahrain are now among four Arab states -Egypt and Jordan to recognize Israeli statehood while UAE on the other hand, have recently welcomed direct flight from Israel. This sign was greeted with enthusiasm Albright and Hadley who described it as “strategy is worth embracing.” Overall it falls into a vision of Trump’s America Middle East outpost. 

To then understand Trump foreign policy as indicated above, requires multi prong, octopus mind boggling and dissecting approach for his three year and counting in office. He is your unconventional politician-not the typical but one with wide mouth, Twitter foreign policy guru. Others tried to copy him but failed, because he is a one man politician. Though risky given it’s unpredictability in international politics, so far he’s managed to avoid war. He’s courted enmity with establishment, whose singularity approach are as opposed to multiplicity of any sort. Can he successfully pull the election? I wasn’t surprised by the way he won the last time because I predicted to my friends to watch that guy’s space. This is as far as I can get. He’s proven his critics wrong by diving into Israel-the whole Middle East issue, and China too. If his current Israeli success stands, and China fumbles he wins. If either one fails he puts his reputation on the line, and if neither stands, he would have proven that international politics is not for the faint hearted. It is a gamble which so far he has weathered. For Trump and his American dream, it is a fight to maintain the status quo and starve off imperialism by other means. This said, Trump has no appetite for war. This brings the Thucydides trap into sharp focus. Would Trump with Xi avoid such trap? It all depends on how Trump manages the Taiwan issue amid other escalating situation both in South China Sea and related trade dispute. I predict there could only be economic spheric dispute which could avert direct military confrontation. The world has changed since the peloponnesian war, the inclusion of nuclear weapon, means countries would do everything to avoid direct warfare. But make no mistake, miscalculation can heighten possibility of war. At the moment, all Trump wants is to bring the worst out from China, maybe the rest of the world can take note or follow in his footsteps on raining in on China. This is evident from the framing of the pandemic and trade dispute respectively. Either way, they play to his political audience at home while setting out his vision of the world he perceives. Time we read it as it is.

Celestine Chidi

What comes after the pandemic? Surely the elites shall not be part of it.

The pandemic have not just exposed us to the shambolic effect of elite cluelessness in leadership or lack of vision but most importantly, of how it has endangered our collective immunity to tolerance of their bad effect. How long shall this continue? The image of our fellow brothers and sisters in many African states queuing up, fighting while begging for handout during this period has shown, how collectively we have failed in our vision for a stable continent not to talk of statehood. From the various regions that make up the collective georegion of our Political concave, the story is just the same. What has actually happened for us to get to this point? We sold our collective right to few individuals who have made it a duty to benefit from our woes, defrauded our cognitive ability and left us vulnerable. This story is the same, everywhere in the continent as politician make promises, that can’t be fulfilled yet, we fail to hold them to account simply because our tolerance level is so high. Even when pressed against the wall, we hardly fight back but rather break the wall to give them enough space. Here we are today, as experiments in a lab of trial and error. Like Friedman sums it using Trump analogy: “Trump talks like China, envies Sweden, prepares for neither and insist that his strategy is superior to both.” This is how our response in the pandemic can be summarily explained. We have become victims of change and continuity simply because, our lapses gives room for same outcome. 

How prepared are we for what is to come?

It is projected that death would increase and poverty would grow just from this pandemic alone. We have been dying even before this but please don’t get me wrong. This is an opportunity for change and not continuity as we know it before. Are we prepared for it? Fellow Africans, our national elites have failed us and it is time we reclaim our space, if ever we hope to come out of this pandemic a better humanity. It is time we stand up for our right and ask that we be treated rightfully as bonafide citizens of this beautiful continent. Not just the touch and go of the past but fully invested to decide the fate, our fate,for it is about our lives and those of the future generation, not for the few rich, the elite whose failures we have fallen victim. The elite who take pride and benefits from our woes, who have made it a duty to ride on our, forgive me for this- collective amnesia as they would like to ridiculously refer to us. We play dumb not because we are afraid to act, we are a people with immense respect and unimaginable level of tolerance yet it cannot be business as usual. Tolerance has limit, so too is amnesia, for sometimes the rush of memory is all we need. Many diseases has been plaguing the continent some would say-Ebola, malaria even poverty itself. It only took a single act for Arab spring to unravel the northern part of our continent and beyond, never forget that. 

What can be done?

The statement “am an African” is a vision that aligns us to working as a collective, in solidarity with who, where, and when the need arises. It is not today’s vision but has unfortunately become a vision without tooth, a tooth without the jaw. It is a fragmented vision, rational though, yet remain an elitist project- spectacle of top-down chatter without vision or ambition. It is propaganda that has overwhelmingly failed to enroll the poorest of the poor, a vision shrouded in mystery. It is time, the people lead the course and cause the elite to listen. No people can be free if the least amongst them is in shackle. Government must work for all, for what is good for the goose is good for the gander. African leaders have prided themselves not in service to their people but rather have made the people servants of the leaders. Most have prided themselves visiting foreign hospitals for checkups while the poor are left to deal with broken down hospitals beds. Fighting for their life’s in limited life support machines, if ever they are working. These are not rocket science, it is simple mathematics of doing what is right. A leader remains a servant. But they have misspelt politics to mean policing, because they feel the people are beyond redemption and without an ability of reasoning. This is not a revolution against the current political class but of a thinking minds, the collective involvement of the people to choices that can leads to a better life for all. It is calls for and involves thinking on how to revive ourselves from the ruins of the select few who have played us for a fool and placed us all in danger. The elite have failed us ones again, the pandemic has expose them as shams and we are without vision as to where we may land. It is time for a more common African promise that is simple and understandable to all. 

How can this be done?

We need to put aside our nationalist sentiments, which is a convenient tool deployed at will as cover for political failures and we must wear a solidarity mask. The mask should be symbolic, not only does it prevent us from contracting future disease through fail policy, it is a tool in our hands to prevent others from contracting the disease-disease spread through political hate, incompetence, ineptitude and other political vices. Hate divides, incompetence and ineptitude shreds our collective immunity. This is how, the people’s power become captured if they fail to take action. We must dare to dream starting now, for what happens post the pandemic must show repurposing for change rather than continuity as we know it-as though nothing ever happened.  

This continent was conceived with a people but has so far been led without the people in mind. It is time we turn the tide against those who feel, we are just a pawn. 

Celestine Chidi

Collective suicide? Leadership Before, During and After Pandemic.

One of the common features of this time, is the absence of global leadership as an effectual hope in crisis period. The current international order is lead by United States of America. Coming out of the destruction of WW11, America lead an international order to restore sanity, with UN and subsequently other institutions that emerged. Let the truth be said, no other country could have pulled it better than they did because they had the skill then to make it succeed. Without ignoring other countries effort, it is collective after all, kudos to everyone who played a part. 

Fast forward to current crisis which for many people in their 50s and 60s, have never seen a thing like this before. The Spanish flu virus happened in 1918-1919, whereas, the great depression was in the 1930. So for the 50s and 60s year of age, they have a lot not to wish for. I can tell you, the coronavirus pandemic would be one of those, whether in this part of the world or elsewhere. Although we have long faced crisis with greater immense consequences. This coronavirus to so many, tests more like the last supper. Malaria and hunger kills so many but never have they lead to such potential economic disaster with total lockdown. It happened at a time when leadership is missing or have long been missed. I wish to borrow from one of the many people I greatly admire, Dr T.L Friedman, he said “In a time of crisis, like we are in now, with people feeling frightened and uncertain, leadership doesn’t just matter more. It matters exponentially more.” 

Many African states have endured many years living in crisis mood as indicated above. But most challenging of them all is the quality of leadership we have come to dwell with. Of course, someone would say, speak for yourself. But the reality is, the many years before this current crisis emerged, other continent have bought us enough time to prepare for moment like this. What do I mean? Many of our leaders past and present have had the opportunity at one time to interact with their peers outside of the continent. Many have also been opportune to, borrow from such policy if those were possible, study from it to help them formulate their own policy. Most of our continent leaders are western trained. This begs the question; what have we actually learn in such interaction or engagement to help our respective countries?

Africa is so rich with natural resources, yet many of its citizens live below poverty line. The arrival of this pandemics have laid bare what was long hiding in our mist. We are aware of it but however, we remain unprepared further down history. Paraphrasing the words of T.L Friedman, this pandemic flow into every tiny corner and pore and expose every weakness or strength in our society: how much trust we have in our government; how much social trust exists in our community to enable collaboration. This is another reason to examine what constitutes our strength for our success. They are doomed, who do not learn from history. This is the situation we face right? I can tell you, it is. 

During the pandemic, most African countries have to go the mean root of total lockdown without considerable thought to the potential aftermath. Many countries were ill prepared in so many ways. No adequate facilities in existing hospitals, actually no social security is ever in existence. People were lockdown without adequate resources to mitigate or cushion the effect of such lockdown. Government alone can not solve all social ill and requires coordination. But cooperation and coordination comes from existing trust. In the absence of these, what achievement can can possibly be? One can only hope, for “we cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself.” It is surprising I have to borrow from Trump to make a point. It shows leaders come in different size and shape. Saying that may resonate with us even though we disagree. But here in the continent, it is going to be worse.

By the end of this crisis, many people would have been rack by the pandemic not of their lives but their livelihood. Poverty whatever it may be is sure to grow pass the point were it was before the pandemic. Another opportunity for dependency on hand out to grow at lowest strata in our society. Other issues would result to tighter security heavy handed approach. An opportunity too for self messiahs to emerge and take advantage of our collective woes. This is going to be a long stretch and a repeat of a very bad movie. We have seen this before, it is collective suicide because we were never prepare for whats ahead.

I have stopped saying, God help us, because He has given us enough wisdom. These word of Fareed Zakaria is to important to be ignored, “We need leaders who take responsibility and make choices, informed deeply by science but also by economics, politics, ethics and other disciplines. Just as war is too important to be left to the generals, pandemics are too important to be left to the scientists.” Hope the lessons that is drawn, shall form part of the learning, and many countries in the continent would be up to the task when next Mother Nature calls. This isn’t going to be the last for such an events, we have destroyed nature, and leadership more than ever is needed to rebuild 

From Celestine Chidi

Democracy gone Rogue or is it South? Bandwagon mentality.

When we look around the world as the pandemic racks people life, economy and most importantly freedom, one common feature is what we hear or see on television; lockdown from small, medium and large country democratic or autocratic, North or South. It shows this coronavirus pandemic doesn’t look any country in the eye, it ravages as it goes, as far as it can, if by chance you were caught sleeping on duty. The last word is what matters, ‘sleeping on duty.’ Where we caught napping? The word North and South, highlights the socio-characterization of our divided world or countries. Wherein the north is the rich and developed, the south is the semi-developed and or poverty stricken states. Back to the topic, democracy gone rogue or is it South?

The choice of this topic is driven in part by what I observe and can be termed bandwagon mentality that characterized various countries response to the pandemic. It is true it came as a sudden shock but we cannot deny that actions in China never happened in realtime. One thing that’s common is the near total level of lockdown that is implemented, only a few countries decided against it, Sweden. But the one thing that got me thinking is, the adoption of autocratic approach to an issue that is not humans cause but human victim (this can be debated if emotions don’t run amok)-deployment of military for law enforcement purpose in democratic countries is worrisome. According to Maas (German foreign Minister) “China has taken some very authoritarian measures.”

Wait a minute, China did it, now Italy has taken a leaf, and so did Spain, and so also a whole host of other countries did so too. If Nigeria, Pakistan adopts such an approach, I can understand because there has been long simmering issues on the ground. I avoided mentioning a host of other countries because time and space is of essence, anyway it did not surprise me. 

What can caused such heavy handed approach in democracy? I don’t want to say it. Say it! Ok! Here is my thinking as raw as it can get. At a point in time, the people stopped listening to their government because they feel, these guys are a bunch of ‘A...h, these politician are actually taking chances. We the people are their labs, where they conduct test. It is the lab of politicians opinion against the popular saying “government of the people, by the people, and for the people.” Why should we trust them? 

In France, on the eve of his maiden address, Mr Macron the president termed the pandemic invisible enemy. For that reason, he deploys the army. In the world biggest democracy, India, after a day of trial, the next move by the government without prior notice was total lockdown. In Italy, after weeks of indecision, when the Chinese finally arrived, the government decides to deploy the army to enforce lockdown. Spain also did the same. From the above analogy, one thing is very clear, trust is missing. The description of the pandemic as our “war” with an “invisible enemy,” Thomas L, Friedman says such imagery of “war metaphor is wrong and misleading.” This has lead to over handedness on many democratic, quasi democratic and authoritarian states, turning the pandemic into power grabbing opportunity. When democracy stops trusting that the people who entrusted power to a select few can think and support a given agenda for the benefit of the whole, democracy dies. Trust deficit leading to questions of legitimacy is the beginning to a much bigger problem in a democracy. Democracy cannot point fingers of success in autocratic state as a pretext for its actions. 

In democracy leaders are representatives of the people. All actions and decisions must be align with the desire of the people. In autocratic states, leaders lord it over their subject. In democracy we entrust the affairs of the state in the hands of a select few representatives. Humans we must remember will always be human. If we fail to keep adequate tab on their actions, we might pay a heavy price. From military deployment to use of technology to monitor us? The growing trend on facial recognition as apparatus for deployment should be concerning. South Korea, it is reported intends to keep up extensive testing and vigorous contact-tracing using security-camera footage, credit-card statements and mobile-phone location data. South Korea is different from China we are meant to reason but human nature is not science that can be work out in the lab to decide what are their motivation. What happens when such mechanisms is misused? Reasons to be vigilant. As government around the world tries to maintain control both by directing and framing the narrative, a dangerous trend might be brewing, surveillance and law. This is no longer a tool in the hands of autocrats even democracy are taking a leaf out of it to advance their social causes as a practice. A reason to watch and act, I didn’t say pray. These can be democracy gone rogue or south. 

In this contested space of power, state verses the people, anything can go wrong. When democracy dies the people suffer. So it is of essence to question, don’t just trust, sometimes doubt can yield some positive outcome as people in authority start to question themselves. We need to preserve this hard won battle of freedom. 

Realism never died: coronavirus is what States make of it.

With the end of Cold War came the unfortunate marginalization of theory that gave us a glimpse to what nation state really is. The implosion of constructivism as a paradigm right after this event, followed the accusation on realism for not predicting, but focusing on the prescriptive aspect to international relations. It is a big blow to students of realism. But nation state would be what it is, regardless of norms and structures that they develop. History has never misread what nation states does for living-survival. With all the talk of modernity, the recent pandemic proves history can be repeated, instinct for survival when it kicks in, it is survival of the fittest baby. Norms and institutions take the back sit, just like much of realism were made to, when constructivism carries the day in extrapolating how institution modifies states. Many new students of politics became migrants, assimilating much of the teachings of constructivist, being the savior of what political studies should be. Power politics still persist.

Less focus was given to what nation state really is, there was even talk that nation states would die a natural death. The logic reads that, non state actors would play a more active role in traditional functions of state, international organizations would represent the fora for commonality of behaviors. This was the ideal scientific man coined by Hans Morgenthau, the norm abiding gobblish that misread interest. Actually, norm entrepreneurship in current condition means States are never short of ‘up to something,’ tendency. States thinks scientifically of course but acts in real time. Great power competition aside, this new pandemic occurred at a very bad time, subduing cooperation, highlighting competition that breeds anarchy.

Universality of belief in norm eschews individuality and attendant anarchy in pursuit of general interest, this is idealistic utopianism.    

Wendt thinking revolves on the idea that changing the social construction of anarchy, can thereby obviate the worry that our neighbors will become our bedding partner. Lovers do kill remember. This is a world in which good agent thinks for everyone’s need since they know what is best to everyone, but these agents faces messy internal interests. This situation warrants the question, can there be fair judge and prosecutor occupying the same sit? Haven’t we been there before? Bear in mind “anarchy is what states makes of it. States are more than the scientific man, reality check. They don’t observe ordinances when their interest are at stake, they rather work around them and where if possible make it work for them. From individual states within European Union response to Italy in need, to Turkey and China directing companies to stop export. These are states hoarding pandemic essential at a time of crisis for national interest. It is sorrow go round, we see this both in big, small states, modern, backward states. While on this, much of realism went on hiatus as I stated earlier. But the outcome of current world affair points us back to where we are in today’s world. 

State never really died, they were hibernating, waiting for the winter chill to pass by. States during the coronavirus pandemic have proven that, “old soldier never dies.” Basic facts about realism taken for granted. These are the silent characteristics exhibited by states when cooperation demands eschewing interest for common good. The nation state of Westphalia imagined, resurfaces, reestablishes and even waxed stronger. States act in accordance to perceived interest as a given right. The core insight, phrased by Hans Morgenthau, is that “we must see the world as it is, rather than as we want it to be” this is also true about nation state. That some states in modern times were being characterized as acting like mafias or modern day pirates is testament to reality. Where is the norms and structure meant to guide against life against the jungle? Anarchy is part of states construction, we cannot pretend that all is good that ends badly. From deployment of the military personal on the streets in peacetime against unimaginably foe, to use of war time imagery, words and action to achieve a common message, am back again in control. The virus is nation state framing of war image to maintain sovereignty from invading enemy. Hmmm! The only mental explanation while the pandemic runs amok. Does the state ever accept failure? This is why accountability is required after all said and done.

In conclusion, the return of classical realism shall be relief, its points us to states action and possible reaction. The basic fact of life is if we fail to understand the state, we may forever be shocked when similar event is repeated. The Westphalian architecture of Hobbesian state means, realism would never dies. 

By Celestine Chidi

Sirens for Hire: A Critical Review of Nigerian Security System

While many countries are busy curtailing the use of sirens to only government officials if ever it is necessary, in Nigeria the opposite is the case. There is a growing trend in private individuals hiring sirens for personal use or installing it with the purpose of achieving the above. It has grown to such exceptionality that it is no longer unusual to see cars rolling by in high speed with a siren or blue light installed. A friend jokingly christened it ‘money siren’ associating with big money as opposed to government responsibility to protecting all and sundry. At traffic jam it is not unusual to see such blaring to escape such, an indication of how divided the society exist-different rules for different peers as far as Nigeria is concerned.The permit is usually obtained from law enforcement agency so there is official knowledge of its prevalence within the society. What should be noted is that it is only accessible to wealthy individuals within the society or those who can show they have acquired wealth without proof of how those wealth were amassed. All what is required is for the Lagos command to grant the permission so long as the money is in display.

A friend of mine visiting Nigeria after a long time was shocked in his observations as to how prevalent this has become. In these cars fitted with siren are security personnel whom are attached to these car owners. One question comes to mind, if individuals are given private security either police or army, whom then guards the state or community where the population resides.The amazing thing is that there are more individuals seeking such security clearances to operate with entourage meaning many police officials are withdrawn from officials public good to serve personal interests. The big question would be; What internal conditions could give rise to such a situation? With the spike in kidnapping around different states within the country and politician enriching themselves, clueless to societal need, the Country resembles just a gangster paradise 

There is no current study that suggest the benefit of such individualization of security outfit to increased or reduced risk associated with crime to a particular society. The only thing that can easily crop to mind is the failure of the system to work efficiently giving rise to such proliferation. This situation is common in countries with high level of insecurity or lapses on security matters as a result of warlord or segmented security formation. This situation can arise in countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya or Congo which can be classified as failed state? The indication and implications of such to Nigeria only signifies characteristics of failed statehood of which is no different from countries in state of war. The failure to adequately arrange or organize how states should function has resulted in such conditions as seen today which is an indictment on the crop and class of elite who benefits from such state of utter despondency, desperation and fear. 

What are the primary responsibilities of government? 

The function of government all over the world is to provide security to the population within their territory. These security functions can be carried out in most instances by the police. The relationship between the population and the police is very vital in achieving internal security of the state. But in most cases these relationship is that of cat and mouse as most would attest to. In most instances these situation could deteriorate the relations between the police and the community is one of suspicion. There has be report the very same police that are supposed to protect citizens inspire fear and terror. Since such protections extend to life and property. Given the above, equal provision to protection of life and properties should not be biased against the poor. Application of ‘what is good’ should be beneficial to both ‘goose and gander.’ This means that government shouldn’t use general public goods to serve certain interests above the other as such the quod pro quo principle should remain relevant in the mind and act of those placed in position of authority. When the rich are highly prioritized to the detriment of the poor in a the society it is indicative of failure on the part of the state to perform the sole responsibilities of securing life and property as such no different from a classification of a failed state. 

What are the consequences of such proliferation of security outfits without coordination? 

The consequences are multifaceted firstly, the diversion of resources and  factionalisation of the society. Of course one might argue that the gab between rich and poor are so obvious as such the rich requires greater protection. This does not hold because a society that undermines its under privileged people run the risk of heightened tension and is judged by how it takes care of their need. The adoption of constitutional democracy was meant to take  care of perceived inequalities creating room for coexistence before the law for both rich and poor. This is to avoid creating the impression that the law operates in two categories one for the rich and the other for the poor. This diversionary illusion gives the powerful the right to act as though they are above reproach-a bias approach in the distribution and management of general goods. This kind of behavior encourages out of touch policy of impunity on the part of those entrusted with the leadership within the society. This total or absolute disorganization associated with such fragrant disregard to normal process of social coexistence is hard to comprehend and leads to continued disdain and inept actions on authorized persons towards the poor in today’s Nigeria . This happens because no one amongst those in authority understood how such behavior unfortunately undermines basic rule of law leading to break down of law and order-situation of chaos or rule of the jungle. 

Secondly, it blurs the line in security as individuals involved act right above the law of common sense. For instance in a recent incident a blue light driver parks his car right in the middle of the road creating long line of traffic and could not be challenged, an indication of how fragrantly laws are and can be abused by the powerful.

Thirdly such act can be exploited by criminal syndicates. The security personal are quick to let such drivers with blue light to cross security post without subjection to searches. There has been report where individuals uses these cars to transport illicit goods under the protection of the law. This unfortunately also adds to challenges of insecurity within the country. The spike in Kidnappings across the country and officials authorizations of siren and blue light offers incidents for perpetrators under the cover of the law. 

Fourthly, it highlights break down in rule of law and probably failed state attribute. The simple fact that anyone can be given the power to run a blue light with the authority of the law enforcement agency is an indictment to the fact that no authority is in a existence. That limited resources could be diverted to few individuals to the detriment of an entire society should be worrying and calls to question if really the government takes seriously the oath to protect every life and not selected life’s.

Are such unconventional wisdom supportive of current Security challenge in Nigeria? 

There is no solution in such act as granting individuals to take security in their own hands as leasing what should be public goods or tools. While the politicians allot to themselves police and military personnel as guards, the masses languish within insecurity. The few with money buy sirens to blow their way through the chaos. This proliferation of such security apparels endangers the well being of the entire society. Since the proliferation of jihadist from ISIS to Boko Haram, and with government inability to secure the borders, it is utter stupidity that given such level of insecurity government should take for granted such security matters. That security is biased against the poor people who are victims of government failed policy to achieve protection of lives and property through such leases is a proven fact. Just as many nations are tightening the screw on use of security product in times like these given counterinsurgency in an era filled with terrorism, it is incumbent on state such as Nigeria to review certain act or policy that doesn’t add to its security needs. Such unconventional act can be exploited and damaging to the citizens whose hopes unfortunately are increasingly far away from their political elites not leaders.

Celestine Chidi holds BA in International Relation and BA Hons in International Politics 

The New Normal: Guarded Democracy by Khakimen an illusion to civilian Rule

The metamorphosis of khaki to Agbada politics in Nigeria is stifling democratic gains which has led to this critical question, what should be done to a lion that has tested human blood? 

There are no easy way to the above question. In the most extreme, it falls on the rangers to make the last minute call for the continued security of the community. In Nigeria after the demise of the military rule, it much feels like nothing much has changed. The mentality is much the same-matching orders are constantly issued, from executive to legislative, like the military never vacated the space. Recently in Algeria, even though the population got to test democracy, dislodging the military from previously occupied political space is proven an incomparably task and much difficult to achieve. Nigeria like many countries that has experienced military test of power, they remain a challenge to sustaining the gains of democracy. In Nigeria, the brutality of civilians population continues unabated. The society lives under fear, ‘watch what you say, to whom, so to belong you dire not speak against the security forces or else, you have yourself to blame.’ Consider using the word revolution, the government would surely fish you out. Where then is freedom of speech, expression or otherwise as the constitution specified?

A close look at the structure of leadership that has emerged since independence, one would be shocked to what is found. The players in the space of leadership happened to be those who prosecuted the civil war of the late 60’s. From Gowan, Mutala, Obasanjo, Buhari, Babangadi, Abacha to the present with exception of Shagari, Shonikon, Yaradua and Goodluck. The combined years for this Nigerian civilians rule were more or less around 10 years. So in all, we have had a combined total of over 25years for military and metamorphosed military reign of 13years.The next question would be, are we really in a democratic dispensation where a true and proper civilian government emerges outside of former military strongman to unwind the fear that has stifle good governance? Though this is not peculiar to Nigeria alone, most States that were hotbed of military regime or control of government at one point or another are struggling to untangle themselves from the scorch of such rules. I call it a scorch because there remains, lack of accountability, mismanagement and wanton brutality within these society. Even where a civilian government emerges, they are micromanaged not to offend the security apparatus. 

The rate at which the ex-military personnel hungry for power switch in Agbada since the world shunned coup is becoming a new normal within developing countries. The problem is that, it endangers the possibilities of true democracy in these parts of the world. From Pakistan, Sudan, Egypt, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Thailand and many look alike democratic state, the tread is taken shape and unfortunately is overlooked by even Western states which unwittingly is courting these autocratic leaders on accounts of self interest. The Thailand scenario was described as a, ‘Crude mockery of democracy,’ the implications are severe given the dangers posed by these regime who continues to inflict untold psychological pain on the lives of ordinary civilian population. Many in these states remain constrained, reactive increasing future chances of instability and possibly insecurity-Nigeria and Egypt as a ticking time bomb.

There is nothing like military lead democracy and we are witnesses to the carnage in Sudan most recently were close to 118 protesters were murdered by the RSF-a Janjaweed, a paramilitary group that supports the ruling military. The benefits to military engineered democracy is yet to yield any positive reap off for any society of modern memory. They are an elite within elite with huge wealth and status to protect, so there continued participation in politics is meant to preserve, save or protect such ill begotten wealth. 

The event in Thailand and those of Sudan should serve as a wake up call to why it is important that international community should consider placing heavy burden through sanctions on ex-militocracy, a new means to usurping power without bullet. It is important that much be done to increase civilian control of the military since they are not accountable by virtue of their guns.

A close study of the countries that were ones under such forms of rule would indicate absence of robust civilian participation which is a common phenomenon in many of these states like Nigeria. The lack of tolerance by the security forces remains a clear manifestation and an indication to an environment of fear and intimidation under which such that state operates. For instance, the planned protest by ‘Revolution Now group, was brutally crushed two day after its leader was arrested by men of Nigeria DSS with a trumped up charge. 

The beauty of democracy is in its ugliest ethos ‘agree to disagree.’ To intervene means upending a flourishing process of learning to better through mistakes. For developing states like the ones mentioned above practice makes perfect should signify and amplify the process and approach to building solid democracy which is without Force- khaki politics. 

Metamorphosis and operations of khaki morphed Agbada political elite in democratic space isn’t a good sign for countries with long history of military brutality. Irrespective of the ugliness of tyranny by either the majority or minority, the beauty lies on,political negotiations between civilian stakeholders. Nothing involves force, as such, civilian should be given the opportunity and space to correct their mistakes. Disregarding the shenanigans of politicians elite, a flawless constitutional established order is meant to guide the process without a messianic militocracy to the rescue. It remains a setback for proper constitutional democratic order of development. The psychology of a military personnel differs from that of an ordinary civilian and it complicates the more when it involved in the day to day running of any state not to mention Nigeria even after the khaki has been displaced. The orientation of the military is not meant to help in political civilian democracy and can’t be helpful either if we hope to build a lasting democratic state we can all be proud of. Their role end in defense of nations sovereignty while involvement in politics takes them far away from achieving such.

Finally, civilians should avoid courting the retired military as though their is anything meaningful to learn from the brutal uncivilized approach to governance.

(This piece was inspired from traveling between Nigeria and Ghana, how the benefits of democracy differs between both nations).

Ezemedolu Celestine holds BA in International Relation and BA.Hons in International Politics 

Once upon a time in Africas’ most populous Black Nation: Nigeria.

Was there a time in this Country when the people lived happily ever after? I believe if we all search individually we might find such a time. But it is not about that time, it is about how old the state has existed and what has it achieved so far. It is about transitioning from old to youth as we plan for the future. If ever there was such a time when things were rosy, it should be important to note that, it was a time before the government went to bed with big businesses as rent seekers. As government has become unconscionable to what the masses need there is need for somber reflection. Today there is greater proof that government are in pocket of big business without whom they cannot perform. The youths can hardly boast of seeing old age haven been abandoned, leadership is more expensive, none caring and distant. Government ran as though not of, by and for the people. A captured entity, no longer in control or hands of those whom were voted to run it. The State of affairs are beyond what anyone hopes for and the resultant effect are despondency and desperation.  How did we get here? 

When the State was captured.

 

The State of Nigeria is similar to the parable of the sower. The seed ends up in barren state of affairs given these prevailing circumstances which includes: leaderless attributes, loathing of state resources, ineptitude and unaccountability to name a few, implications of which are severe. Irrespective of all effort to get things working, the country continues to witness an increasingly high level of ills. This is not because the youths to whom the future are to be entrusted are clueless, loves crime, with the tendency to destroy such future but simply for their hands off, not engaged approach-so many vested interests that lock them out, resulting to current despondency. Take a short right to the center of Nigerian mono economic heartthrob and you would be forced to ask, what is wrong with Nigeria and the leaders? Basic infrastructure are barely in existence and where they are, is below standard not to even talk of moderate. This then can explain the restive nature of the life of a typical citizen of oil producing States or northeast where Boko Haram operates. Accountability is a missing word.

Let’s look at what is meant when one says a state is captured: according to Hellman & Kaufman 2001:1; Dassah 2018) ‘efforts of firms to shape the laws, policies, and regulations of the state to their own advantage by providing illicit private gains to public officials.’ Simply put, it is a situation in which leaders act not in the interest of citizens whose taxes pay their salaries but rather serve the interests of big business in whose pocket they found themselves knowingly or unknowingly. Let’s take a practical consequential outlook for an oil company operating in Niger Delta in an event this same company is situated in USA and is alleged to be environmental polluter. The congress would summon the company to come and testify. The relevant environmental agencies would conduct assessment and issue public report. The court would get involved in the interest of the society. In an event they are found culpable, series of options are utilized which includes: fine, withdrawals of license or other punishments deemed fit or even imprisonment. So how many of such instances can we relate to. why is this not so in Nigeria, and if so where and what consequences have these companies been made to face given the current state of affair in the country? Environmental protection is not a western thing but a global responsibility, should be of vital importance, violations should bear consequences. 

In the absence of no report, one could only conclude: it is either the branches of government knows nothing about governance or like the concept of state capture suggest are outside of state control. Either way, it calls to question the type of leadership we have, whom in the face of abnormalities look the other way. We have reached a point where, truth be told not behind veils.

The kind of MNC we have so far attracted are lead by corporate greed and danger to the future. Accountability should be an everyday catch word. Whilst the people whose land are destroyed cries, their resources whittled away, government which is meant to secure the interest of the state/people looks away because FDI dictates-profit before life. 

Nigeria is so blessed that if the resources are well managed, many countries would be courting the citizens like they do with the Chinese whose wealth are of high demand. We have an industrious population, less demanding compared to many countries where governments are saddled with much bigger responsibility-an industrial potential. The population and the ingenuity of the Nigerian citizens should be the starting point for the nations developmental needs rather than looks elsewhere. Whilst the government run around seeking for potential investors, the potential of the citizens gets wasted because the basic needs for such to take root are virtually missing. No matter how FDI driven need we become, countries depends on the strength of their citizens to develop. FDI are profit driven, speculative and not in it for a long haul and can fizzle out when burdened with social corporate responsibility for which in Nigeria is too much to handle. 

Where do you start? Government has abandoned it social contract. Government should work towards investing on the people by building basic infrastructure that enables development to thrive like roads and steady electricity. For starters and for crying out loud, let’s ask ourselves simple question, Why aren’t big companies coming this way? The ones that are here aren’t willing to put down real investment because of high instability. If we still import common dairy milk what does it say of long existing company that has been occupying the space? Combine our potential as a nation now and into the future bearing in mind that, Nigerian youth population is projected to grow further by 2055 by U.N. report. 

To return to a state of stability, government should employ and apply researches that can help project the strength of the country. As we seek FDI, we should focus more on inward strength of the the youths. Wane the nation of dependency on big business that has underdeveloped the state because of vested interests that runs parallel against accountability. The biggest investment for Nigeria are the people because, they are self conscious, capable and ready to help government fulfill the developmental needs of the state.

Celestine Chidi hold BA in International Relation and BA. Hons in International Politics 

Chagos Archipelago: Treaty of Pelindaba at a crossroad with INF

Abstract:

Chagos Archipelago occupies an important strategic piece of Island for several reasons; firstly, it is within the continent of Africa and plays an important part to actualization of the Treaty of Pelindaba. Secondly it is a strategic piece of trophy of colonialism, a treasure to Britain, leased, and occupied by USA military. But recent pronouncement by International Court of Justice reaffirms the legal status of the Island as an inseparably part of Mauritius. This brings to focus recently defunct INF and the full observance of Treaty of Pelindaba in line with Protocol 1 and 2 to which the NWS are signatories.

Acronyms 

NPT-Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

ANWFZs-African Nuclear Weapon Free Zones 

INF-Intermediate Range Nuclear Force

ICJ-International Court of Justice 

NWS-Nuclear Weapon States

UNGA-United Nation General Assembly 

INTRODUCTION 

The decision by USA and the Russian Federation signaling end to the INF is of a highly regrettable outcome. But its impact goes beyond these two countries concerned and have a reverberating and dominos effect on other regions of the world. Africa has never been spared from geopolitical muscling of great powers given the extractive nature of desired raw minerals. This compounds the ideological influence of world powers within the continent and so can not be indifferent as military power comes into play. This then prompts the need to revisit one of the most contentious and contested issue within the Treaty of Pelindaba-Chagos Archipelago. Although many signatories to the protocols have signed but reservations remains. It would be recalled that the Diego Garcia which forms part of Chagos Archipelago was recently a subject of International Court of Justice ruling. This unfortunately was against British and Americas interest with respect to the Island . This brings into sharp focus the secretive military activity within the Island and considering the issue surrounding intermediate range nuclear force Treaty.

Was this piece of Island ever contested? The answer is, Yes. The position of the Island was highly debated during the panel of expert negotiations of Treaty of Pelindaba for which the Russian Federation had and still have reservations. To put it simply, the idea of NWFZs in the African contest is as good as being held hostage by the fact that there are unresolved issues. The underlining statement affirming; ‘the reservation that Russia’s signing of the treaty does not apply to the U.S. base of Diego Garcia, which is located on an island of the Chagos Archipelago in the Indian Ocean,’ challenge Africas quest for a total continental Nuclear Free Zone supported by the recent ICJ ruling. The consequences of the above challenge is but not limited to, the positive and negative responsibility of Nuclear Weapon State to shield Nuclear Weapon Free Zones which is compromised. The reason for the above assertion comes from the fact that the Island in question is within and is African. This articles looks at sovereignty of the Island and write to urge parties concern to safeguard the integrity of the Treaty. 

Background: Chagos Island

As the colonial states were winding down control of the various colonies one state after another, the issue of Mauritius was handled differently by Britain. Three years towards granting the country independence Chagos Archipelago was separated from the country and around 2000 of its inhabitants moved to other areas of the country. It was subsequently leased to the USA for military purposes. It remained a thorny issue not only to Mauritius but to Africa especially as the ANWFZs was negotiated and had undue influence on the final outcome of the Treaty. This meant that not all African territoriality where automatically covered as illustrated by the map of the Treaty of Pelindaba. 

In 2017, the UNGA took a decision to seek the advise of ICJ on the lawful conclusion of decolonization. The court through Justice Yusuf, made the following pronouncement: ‘The court having found that the decolonization of Mauritius was not conducted in a manner consistent with the right of peoples to self-determination, it follows that the United Kingdom’s continued administration of the Chagos Archipelago constitutes a wrongful act entailing the international responsibility of that State.’

Implications of the Judgement to the Treaty of Pelindaba 

   Though the jurisdiction of the Court is a contentious issues yet, its ruling is still significant simply because it adds to rule based, norm importance of international institutions. We all know the idea of anarchy and how it plays out at that level of states interaction. The constructivist analogy of ‘anarchy is what states makes of it,’ deems it necessary that key stakeholders especially those with maximum power led by example. International law in the case of the ruling of ICJ can become a means to an end of anarchy as states starts changing their behavior. This helps to maintain such rule based institutions which in essence supports the liberal democratic order. 

  It can be recalled Africans position on the territory integrity as mapped out on ANWFZS coverage; ‘that Diego Garcia be unconditionally returned to Mauritius and that its peaceful character be maintained.’ The phrase ‘peaceful character,’ supports the purposes and spirit of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty which includes support for ‘positive and negative assurance.’ But still renunciation isn’t enough as association by default could cause devastating nuclear consequences. Given the above and in line with ANWFZs observance of NPT protocol, the decision regarding INF becomes not just a bilateral issue between USA and Russia but also of African imperative. This is why refocusing on the importance of ICJ ruling could help bring finality to the Treaty observance within the spirit of the law.

The defunct INF (Intermediate range Nuclear force), poses danger to African continent as great power struggle enters new phase. Regardless of how Africa tries to ignore the current status of INF which unfortunately, is not only to the interest of the parties concern but is of utmost important to the general welfare of peace and security within African continent.

This is why it is necessary that based on the pronouncements especially the recent judgement of ICJ, we should seek for transparency on Chagos Archipelago for the interest of peace. However, irrespective of the non binding nature of the judgement, yet recalling that Manila won a landmark case against China at an international tribunal. At the same time, recalling the position of United State of America which urged China to abide by the court ruling. Therefore, inline with spirit of fairness and unambiguity towards maintaining rule based order, it would be helpful if USA and Britain abide by the court ruling,  Bearing in mind that there is the need for leadership for which both USA and Britain as architects to current world order needs to uphold. This means living by example could help return the world on the right part of working within constructed world order. To this end, no doubt should be created towards protecting one of human greatest achievements on nuclear management-NPT. 

Finally, the onus is us to advocate for a world free from nuclear weapon especially within the continent of Africa even if the competing powers see no need for it. The decision to upend such Treaty as INF, opens the world to nuclear arms race is regrettable and unfortunate. We have come thus far and cannot allow great power tussle to steal the shine. The need to remain proactive to issue of nuclear weapon to safeguard the rest of the world from doom is now.

Celestine Chidi