In analyzing the current relationship between South Korea, North Korea and America, one can draw the following probable variables: (>1 or <1) as possible outcome. Greater, implying that something is achievable whilst less than indicates that nothing gets achieved in current diplomatic effort. This could give rise to or result in a zero sum or win win outcome as far as the politics of Korean Peninsula is concerned.
The Sunshine policy which was scuttled during the second Bush administration points to lack of continuity, thus sending different message in different times to international communities and has come full circle in USA politics today. This leaves many partners, allies and foes as to what America wants. Had there been a continuity in policy that sends clear message for example to the North, maybe, the current situation wouldn’t arise bearing in mind that back then, the north had no weapon yet.
The today’s situation have given rise to an Architect, A Player and A Deal Maker which emerged after fire and fury, little rocket man description.
Interest of all Three
When one looks at the current political juggling between the three States concerned-South Korea, North Korea and America, each party is pushing hard to achieve their individual goal. At the moment, though not many would admit this, the north have the upper hand or momentum even though they are heavily sanctioned. Why do I say this, first they have the nuclear weapon. The sanctions apart, we all know that the Northern regime have survived at the expense of her citizens who are hardly surviving. To this end, the regime of Kim would consider having achieved the most unthinkable-possession of nuclear warhead, in the mist of threat and difficulties and so have won the first battle.
The Moon policy of which is not so different from the Sunshine policy of the past, should not be toppled by policy inconsistencies of partners especially America. The current South Korean leadership have staked a lot to get to this moment. One could see resumption in belligerence on the part of the North after many failed promises that the southern neighbor-economic cooperation have failed to materialize. Heavy reliance on stick at the expense of carrot was partly the reason for past policy failure and such giving rise to current Northern behavior. This identified reason can be managed through close coordinated communication. It is important to carry all parties along even in the face of desperation for quick result.
The effort by Trump to be the first sitting America President to cross the demilitarized zone is worthy of note. Yet it can be marred by inconsistency giving the many messages that are being sent out, at one moment their is exchange of love letters and the next moment statements made openly are not followed. For instance the joint agreement on reduced military activities in the region aimed at supporting diplomacy should be allowed to maintain. After all, the North have not according to Trump conducted or tested any nuclear weapons or launched any ballistic weapons. The need not to give the North reason to resort to bellicose behavior is important given their past actions.
It is worth noting that in politics nothing is absolute until the unexpected happens.
The regime of Kim as ‘The Player’ would not start a war in the Peninsula because they know that would be suicidal. The Moon regime as ‘The Architect’ needs peace with the Northern neighbor so achieved development would not go up in flames by war. President Trump as ‘The Deal Maker’ wants result to show that his three time engagement and border crossing into North Korea were not in vain. All three men are in pursuit of one thing ‘Result’ the question is, who amongst them can make the best of their love nest. National interest in the middle, the architect, player and deal marker are caught up is a love triangle that is still taking shape, would they ‘fall in’ or ‘fail out’ is the big question.
Finally, it is important to support any effort made towards achieving denuclearization even if as it stands now the North has held back in furtherance of nuclear test or ballistic launches.
Celestine Chidi
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