Intrigues of Power

Death itself is just but ones,

a thousand times it feels like here;

for power grabbers reels off our fears,

of game plan closeup to their chests.

Whilst soldiers drill yet not for a war,

Each dancing to tuned pythons sound;

with guns at hand aimed to our heads,

we neither move, speak but subdued.

Whilst leaders dine on golden plates,

our bellies groan like all time wars;

their begotten wealth foul in our mouth,

in slave we toll for the masters needs.

Be unfazed by death to upend our fears

for in fear of death their profits grows;

Oh death! your sting is just their ploy,

my pen won’t ceases till freedom wins.

From ‘Intrigues of Power: Chronicles of a Failed State’.Coming soon

Luxi Lucis

Meus populus perire scientae absens. Scientia arcis validis iucundus respublica viri est. Cum sapiens victus tenebre est, lumi libero. Scientia est lacus vesci fluvius. Luxi lucis, est vera, veritas, vita et lux. Luxi! Ducit via viris. Pulcherrimus scientia est. Res secundae vir sapientia est. imprudentis uno qui abnui scienti est. Quoniam tenebrae vir deformatatis est contemnus lux vetui scientia perii est, et crevi scientia sicut unguentum divitiae tam cupidum est. et est quam melior pecunia foveoeius. Doloris stulta viri perpetuum est, audacter et sapienter fossam.

Libera Animae

Hic ego quaeso tu, evado ignorantia issemus cresco educere. Semper cresco/turgeo circulus. 

Paci est contentus cum liber animae opus una.  Alo anima Tua. Circumstare circulus tango et teneo manus Boni. 

Scientia est lux in tenebrae et comes sapiens est.

Anima Libertae

Animo confici libertae diligentia, paci et lex civitarum contra hostis populi-tyrannus. 

Scribor hortatum amamus libertae consisto cum. Monere ne placo hostis vestrum libertae. Natus libri ne salvi estis. Pugna! Terrent sunt, timeo alae suum interiaceo. Ami iussum et malum resistum. Vir impudens est; captus ab potestas clades mereri.

Sirens for Hire: A Critical Review of Nigerian Security System

While many countries are busy curtailing the use of sirens to only government officials if ever it is necessary, in Nigeria the opposite is the case. There is a growing trend in private individuals hiring sirens for personal use or installing it with the purpose of achieving the above. It has grown to such exceptionality that it is no longer unusual to see cars rolling by in high speed with a siren or blue light installed. A friend jokingly christened it ‘money siren’ associating with big money as opposed to government responsibility to protecting all and sundry. At traffic jam it is not unusual to see such blaring to escape such, an indication of how divided the society exist-different rules for different peers as far as Nigeria is concerned.The permit is usually obtained from law enforcement agency so there is official knowledge of its prevalence within the society. What should be noted is that it is only accessible to wealthy individuals within the society or those who can show they have acquired wealth without proof of how those wealth were amassed. All what is required is for the Lagos command to grant the permission so long as the money is in display.

A friend of mine visiting Nigeria after a long time was shocked in his observations as to how prevalent this has become. In these cars fitted with siren are security personnel whom are attached to these car owners. One question comes to mind, if individuals are given private security either police or army, whom then guards the state or community where the population resides.The amazing thing is that there are more individuals seeking such security clearances to operate with entourage meaning many police officials are withdrawn from officials public good to serve personal interests. The big question would be; What internal conditions could give rise to such a situation? With the spike in kidnapping around different states within the country and politician enriching themselves, clueless to societal need, the Country resembles just a gangster paradise 

There is no current study that suggest the benefit of such individualization of security outfit to increased or reduced risk associated with crime to a particular society. The only thing that can easily crop to mind is the failure of the system to work efficiently giving rise to such proliferation. This situation is common in countries with high level of insecurity or lapses on security matters as a result of warlord or segmented security formation. This situation can arise in countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya or Congo which can be classified as failed state? The indication and implications of such to Nigeria only signifies characteristics of failed statehood of which is no different from countries in state of war. The failure to adequately arrange or organize how states should function has resulted in such conditions as seen today which is an indictment on the crop and class of elite who benefits from such state of utter despondency, desperation and fear. 

What are the primary responsibilities of government? 

The function of government all over the world is to provide security to the population within their territory. These security functions can be carried out in most instances by the police. The relationship between the population and the police is very vital in achieving internal security of the state. But in most cases these relationship is that of cat and mouse as most would attest to. In most instances these situation could deteriorate the relations between the police and the community is one of suspicion. There has be report the very same police that are supposed to protect citizens inspire fear and terror. Since such protections extend to life and property. Given the above, equal provision to protection of life and properties should not be biased against the poor. Application of ‘what is good’ should be beneficial to both ‘goose and gander.’ This means that government shouldn’t use general public goods to serve certain interests above the other as such the quod pro quo principle should remain relevant in the mind and act of those placed in position of authority. When the rich are highly prioritized to the detriment of the poor in a the society it is indicative of failure on the part of the state to perform the sole responsibilities of securing life and property as such no different from a classification of a failed state. 

What are the consequences of such proliferation of security outfits without coordination? 

The consequences are multifaceted firstly, the diversion of resources and  factionalisation of the society. Of course one might argue that the gab between rich and poor are so obvious as such the rich requires greater protection. This does not hold because a society that undermines its under privileged people run the risk of heightened tension and is judged by how it takes care of their need. The adoption of constitutional democracy was meant to take  care of perceived inequalities creating room for coexistence before the law for both rich and poor. This is to avoid creating the impression that the law operates in two categories one for the rich and the other for the poor. This diversionary illusion gives the powerful the right to act as though they are above reproach-a bias approach in the distribution and management of general goods. This kind of behavior encourages out of touch policy of impunity on the part of those entrusted with the leadership within the society. This total or absolute disorganization associated with such fragrant disregard to normal process of social coexistence is hard to comprehend and leads to continued disdain and inept actions on authorized persons towards the poor in today’s Nigeria . This happens because no one amongst those in authority understood how such behavior unfortunately undermines basic rule of law leading to break down of law and order-situation of chaos or rule of the jungle. 

Secondly, it blurs the line in security as individuals involved act right above the law of common sense. For instance in a recent incident a blue light driver parks his car right in the middle of the road creating long line of traffic and could not be challenged, an indication of how fragrantly laws are and can be abused by the powerful.

Thirdly such act can be exploited by criminal syndicates. The security personal are quick to let such drivers with blue light to cross security post without subjection to searches. There has been report where individuals uses these cars to transport illicit goods under the protection of the law. This unfortunately also adds to challenges of insecurity within the country. The spike in Kidnappings across the country and officials authorizations of siren and blue light offers incidents for perpetrators under the cover of the law. 

Fourthly, it highlights break down in rule of law and probably failed state attribute. The simple fact that anyone can be given the power to run a blue light with the authority of the law enforcement agency is an indictment to the fact that no authority is in a existence. That limited resources could be diverted to few individuals to the detriment of an entire society should be worrying and calls to question if really the government takes seriously the oath to protect every life and not selected life’s.

Are such unconventional wisdom supportive of current Security challenge in Nigeria? 

There is no solution in such act as granting individuals to take security in their own hands as leasing what should be public goods or tools. While the politicians allot to themselves police and military personnel as guards, the masses languish within insecurity. The few with money buy sirens to blow their way through the chaos. This proliferation of such security apparels endangers the well being of the entire society. Since the proliferation of jihadist from ISIS to Boko Haram, and with government inability to secure the borders, it is utter stupidity that given such level of insecurity government should take for granted such security matters. That security is biased against the poor people who are victims of government failed policy to achieve protection of lives and property through such leases is a proven fact. Just as many nations are tightening the screw on use of security product in times like these given counterinsurgency in an era filled with terrorism, it is incumbent on state such as Nigeria to review certain act or policy that doesn’t add to its security needs. Such unconventional act can be exploited and damaging to the citizens whose hopes unfortunately are increasingly far away from their political elites not leaders.

Celestine Chidi holds BA in International Relation and BA Hons in International Politics 

The New Normal: Guarded Democracy by Khakimen an illusion to civilian Rule

The metamorphosis of khaki to Agbada politics in Nigeria is stifling democratic gains which has led to this critical question, what should be done to a lion that has tested human blood? 

There are no easy way to the above question. In the most extreme, it falls on the rangers to make the last minute call for the continued security of the community. In Nigeria after the demise of the military rule, it much feels like nothing much has changed. The mentality is much the same-matching orders are constantly issued, from executive to legislative, like the military never vacated the space. Recently in Algeria, even though the population got to test democracy, dislodging the military from previously occupied political space is proven an incomparably task and much difficult to achieve. Nigeria like many countries that has experienced military test of power, they remain a challenge to sustaining the gains of democracy. In Nigeria, the brutality of civilians population continues unabated. The society lives under fear, ‘watch what you say, to whom, so to belong you dire not speak against the security forces or else, you have yourself to blame.’ Consider using the word revolution, the government would surely fish you out. Where then is freedom of speech, expression or otherwise as the constitution specified?

A close look at the structure of leadership that has emerged since independence, one would be shocked to what is found. The players in the space of leadership happened to be those who prosecuted the civil war of the late 60’s. From Gowan, Mutala, Obasanjo, Buhari, Babangadi, Abacha to the present with exception of Shagari, Shonikon, Yaradua and Goodluck. The combined years for this Nigerian civilians rule were more or less around 10 years. So in all, we have had a combined total of over 25years for military and metamorphosed military reign of 13years.The next question would be, are we really in a democratic dispensation where a true and proper civilian government emerges outside of former military strongman to unwind the fear that has stifle good governance? Though this is not peculiar to Nigeria alone, most States that were hotbed of military regime or control of government at one point or another are struggling to untangle themselves from the scorch of such rules. I call it a scorch because there remains, lack of accountability, mismanagement and wanton brutality within these society. Even where a civilian government emerges, they are micromanaged not to offend the security apparatus. 

The rate at which the ex-military personnel hungry for power switch in Agbada since the world shunned coup is becoming a new normal within developing countries. The problem is that, it endangers the possibilities of true democracy in these parts of the world. From Pakistan, Sudan, Egypt, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Thailand and many look alike democratic state, the tread is taken shape and unfortunately is overlooked by even Western states which unwittingly is courting these autocratic leaders on accounts of self interest. The Thailand scenario was described as a, ‘Crude mockery of democracy,’ the implications are severe given the dangers posed by these regime who continues to inflict untold psychological pain on the lives of ordinary civilian population. Many in these states remain constrained, reactive increasing future chances of instability and possibly insecurity-Nigeria and Egypt as a ticking time bomb.

There is nothing like military lead democracy and we are witnesses to the carnage in Sudan most recently were close to 118 protesters were murdered by the RSF-a Janjaweed, a paramilitary group that supports the ruling military. The benefits to military engineered democracy is yet to yield any positive reap off for any society of modern memory. They are an elite within elite with huge wealth and status to protect, so there continued participation in politics is meant to preserve, save or protect such ill begotten wealth. 

The event in Thailand and those of Sudan should serve as a wake up call to why it is important that international community should consider placing heavy burden through sanctions on ex-militocracy, a new means to usurping power without bullet. It is important that much be done to increase civilian control of the military since they are not accountable by virtue of their guns.

A close study of the countries that were ones under such forms of rule would indicate absence of robust civilian participation which is a common phenomenon in many of these states like Nigeria. The lack of tolerance by the security forces remains a clear manifestation and an indication to an environment of fear and intimidation under which such that state operates. For instance, the planned protest by ‘Revolution Now group, was brutally crushed two day after its leader was arrested by men of Nigeria DSS with a trumped up charge. 

The beauty of democracy is in its ugliest ethos ‘agree to disagree.’ To intervene means upending a flourishing process of learning to better through mistakes. For developing states like the ones mentioned above practice makes perfect should signify and amplify the process and approach to building solid democracy which is without Force- khaki politics. 

Metamorphosis and operations of khaki morphed Agbada political elite in democratic space isn’t a good sign for countries with long history of military brutality. Irrespective of the ugliness of tyranny by either the majority or minority, the beauty lies on,political negotiations between civilian stakeholders. Nothing involves force, as such, civilian should be given the opportunity and space to correct their mistakes. Disregarding the shenanigans of politicians elite, a flawless constitutional established order is meant to guide the process without a messianic militocracy to the rescue. It remains a setback for proper constitutional democratic order of development. The psychology of a military personnel differs from that of an ordinary civilian and it complicates the more when it involved in the day to day running of any state not to mention Nigeria even after the khaki has been displaced. The orientation of the military is not meant to help in political civilian democracy and can’t be helpful either if we hope to build a lasting democratic state we can all be proud of. Their role end in defense of nations sovereignty while involvement in politics takes them far away from achieving such.

Finally, civilians should avoid courting the retired military as though their is anything meaningful to learn from the brutal uncivilized approach to governance.

(This piece was inspired from traveling between Nigeria and Ghana, how the benefits of democracy differs between both nations).

Ezemedolu Celestine holds BA in International Relation and BA.Hons in International Politics 

Once upon a time in Africas’ most populous Black Nation: Nigeria.

Was there a time in this Country when the people lived happily ever after? I believe if we all search individually we might find such a time. But it is not about that time, it is about how old the state has existed and what has it achieved so far. It is about transitioning from old to youth as we plan for the future. If ever there was such a time when things were rosy, it should be important to note that, it was a time before the government went to bed with big businesses as rent seekers. As government has become unconscionable to what the masses need there is need for somber reflection. Today there is greater proof that government are in pocket of big business without whom they cannot perform. The youths can hardly boast of seeing old age haven been abandoned, leadership is more expensive, none caring and distant. Government ran as though not of, by and for the people. A captured entity, no longer in control or hands of those whom were voted to run it. The State of affairs are beyond what anyone hopes for and the resultant effect are despondency and desperation.  How did we get here? 

When the State was captured.

 

The State of Nigeria is similar to the parable of the sower. The seed ends up in barren state of affairs given these prevailing circumstances which includes: leaderless attributes, loathing of state resources, ineptitude and unaccountability to name a few, implications of which are severe. Irrespective of all effort to get things working, the country continues to witness an increasingly high level of ills. This is not because the youths to whom the future are to be entrusted are clueless, loves crime, with the tendency to destroy such future but simply for their hands off, not engaged approach-so many vested interests that lock them out, resulting to current despondency. Take a short right to the center of Nigerian mono economic heartthrob and you would be forced to ask, what is wrong with Nigeria and the leaders? Basic infrastructure are barely in existence and where they are, is below standard not to even talk of moderate. This then can explain the restive nature of the life of a typical citizen of oil producing States or northeast where Boko Haram operates. Accountability is a missing word.

Let’s look at what is meant when one says a state is captured: according to Hellman & Kaufman 2001:1; Dassah 2018) ‘efforts of firms to shape the laws, policies, and regulations of the state to their own advantage by providing illicit private gains to public officials.’ Simply put, it is a situation in which leaders act not in the interest of citizens whose taxes pay their salaries but rather serve the interests of big business in whose pocket they found themselves knowingly or unknowingly. Let’s take a practical consequential outlook for an oil company operating in Niger Delta in an event this same company is situated in USA and is alleged to be environmental polluter. The congress would summon the company to come and testify. The relevant environmental agencies would conduct assessment and issue public report. The court would get involved in the interest of the society. In an event they are found culpable, series of options are utilized which includes: fine, withdrawals of license or other punishments deemed fit or even imprisonment. So how many of such instances can we relate to. why is this not so in Nigeria, and if so where and what consequences have these companies been made to face given the current state of affair in the country? Environmental protection is not a western thing but a global responsibility, should be of vital importance, violations should bear consequences. 

In the absence of no report, one could only conclude: it is either the branches of government knows nothing about governance or like the concept of state capture suggest are outside of state control. Either way, it calls to question the type of leadership we have, whom in the face of abnormalities look the other way. We have reached a point where, truth be told not behind veils.

The kind of MNC we have so far attracted are lead by corporate greed and danger to the future. Accountability should be an everyday catch word. Whilst the people whose land are destroyed cries, their resources whittled away, government which is meant to secure the interest of the state/people looks away because FDI dictates-profit before life. 

Nigeria is so blessed that if the resources are well managed, many countries would be courting the citizens like they do with the Chinese whose wealth are of high demand. We have an industrious population, less demanding compared to many countries where governments are saddled with much bigger responsibility-an industrial potential. The population and the ingenuity of the Nigerian citizens should be the starting point for the nations developmental needs rather than looks elsewhere. Whilst the government run around seeking for potential investors, the potential of the citizens gets wasted because the basic needs for such to take root are virtually missing. No matter how FDI driven need we become, countries depends on the strength of their citizens to develop. FDI are profit driven, speculative and not in it for a long haul and can fizzle out when burdened with social corporate responsibility for which in Nigeria is too much to handle. 

Where do you start? Government has abandoned it social contract. Government should work towards investing on the people by building basic infrastructure that enables development to thrive like roads and steady electricity. For starters and for crying out loud, let’s ask ourselves simple question, Why aren’t big companies coming this way? The ones that are here aren’t willing to put down real investment because of high instability. If we still import common dairy milk what does it say of long existing company that has been occupying the space? Combine our potential as a nation now and into the future bearing in mind that, Nigerian youth population is projected to grow further by 2055 by U.N. report. 

To return to a state of stability, government should employ and apply researches that can help project the strength of the country. As we seek FDI, we should focus more on inward strength of the the youths. Wane the nation of dependency on big business that has underdeveloped the state because of vested interests that runs parallel against accountability. The biggest investment for Nigeria are the people because, they are self conscious, capable and ready to help government fulfill the developmental needs of the state.

Celestine Chidi hold BA in International Relation and BA. Hons in International Politics 

Chagos Archipelago: Treaty of Pelindaba at a crossroad with INF

Abstract:

Chagos Archipelago occupies an important strategic piece of Island for several reasons; firstly, it is within the continent of Africa and plays an important part to actualization of the Treaty of Pelindaba. Secondly it is a strategic piece of trophy of colonialism, a treasure to Britain, leased, and occupied by USA military. But recent pronouncement by International Court of Justice reaffirms the legal status of the Island as an inseparably part of Mauritius. This brings to focus recently defunct INF and the full observance of Treaty of Pelindaba in line with Protocol 1 and 2 to which the NWS are signatories.

Acronyms 

NPT-Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

ANWFZs-African Nuclear Weapon Free Zones 

INF-Intermediate Range Nuclear Force

ICJ-International Court of Justice 

NWS-Nuclear Weapon States

UNGA-United Nation General Assembly 

INTRODUCTION 

The decision by USA and the Russian Federation signaling end to the INF is of a highly regrettable outcome. But its impact goes beyond these two countries concerned and have a reverberating and dominos effect on other regions of the world. Africa has never been spared from geopolitical muscling of great powers given the extractive nature of desired raw minerals. This compounds the ideological influence of world powers within the continent and so can not be indifferent as military power comes into play. This then prompts the need to revisit one of the most contentious and contested issue within the Treaty of Pelindaba-Chagos Archipelago. Although many signatories to the protocols have signed but reservations remains. It would be recalled that the Diego Garcia which forms part of Chagos Archipelago was recently a subject of International Court of Justice ruling. This unfortunately was against British and Americas interest with respect to the Island . This brings into sharp focus the secretive military activity within the Island and considering the issue surrounding intermediate range nuclear force Treaty.

Was this piece of Island ever contested? The answer is, Yes. The position of the Island was highly debated during the panel of expert negotiations of Treaty of Pelindaba for which the Russian Federation had and still have reservations. To put it simply, the idea of NWFZs in the African contest is as good as being held hostage by the fact that there are unresolved issues. The underlining statement affirming; ‘the reservation that Russia’s signing of the treaty does not apply to the U.S. base of Diego Garcia, which is located on an island of the Chagos Archipelago in the Indian Ocean,’ challenge Africas quest for a total continental Nuclear Free Zone supported by the recent ICJ ruling. The consequences of the above challenge is but not limited to, the positive and negative responsibility of Nuclear Weapon State to shield Nuclear Weapon Free Zones which is compromised. The reason for the above assertion comes from the fact that the Island in question is within and is African. This articles looks at sovereignty of the Island and write to urge parties concern to safeguard the integrity of the Treaty. 

Background: Chagos Island

As the colonial states were winding down control of the various colonies one state after another, the issue of Mauritius was handled differently by Britain. Three years towards granting the country independence Chagos Archipelago was separated from the country and around 2000 of its inhabitants moved to other areas of the country. It was subsequently leased to the USA for military purposes. It remained a thorny issue not only to Mauritius but to Africa especially as the ANWFZs was negotiated and had undue influence on the final outcome of the Treaty. This meant that not all African territoriality where automatically covered as illustrated by the map of the Treaty of Pelindaba. 

In 2017, the UNGA took a decision to seek the advise of ICJ on the lawful conclusion of decolonization. The court through Justice Yusuf, made the following pronouncement: ‘The court having found that the decolonization of Mauritius was not conducted in a manner consistent with the right of peoples to self-determination, it follows that the United Kingdom’s continued administration of the Chagos Archipelago constitutes a wrongful act entailing the international responsibility of that State.’

Implications of the Judgement to the Treaty of Pelindaba 

   Though the jurisdiction of the Court is a contentious issues yet, its ruling is still significant simply because it adds to rule based, norm importance of international institutions. We all know the idea of anarchy and how it plays out at that level of states interaction. The constructivist analogy of ‘anarchy is what states makes of it,’ deems it necessary that key stakeholders especially those with maximum power led by example. International law in the case of the ruling of ICJ can become a means to an end of anarchy as states starts changing their behavior. This helps to maintain such rule based institutions which in essence supports the liberal democratic order. 

  It can be recalled Africans position on the territory integrity as mapped out on ANWFZS coverage; ‘that Diego Garcia be unconditionally returned to Mauritius and that its peaceful character be maintained.’ The phrase ‘peaceful character,’ supports the purposes and spirit of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty which includes support for ‘positive and negative assurance.’ But still renunciation isn’t enough as association by default could cause devastating nuclear consequences. Given the above and in line with ANWFZs observance of NPT protocol, the decision regarding INF becomes not just a bilateral issue between USA and Russia but also of African imperative. This is why refocusing on the importance of ICJ ruling could help bring finality to the Treaty observance within the spirit of the law.

The defunct INF (Intermediate range Nuclear force), poses danger to African continent as great power struggle enters new phase. Regardless of how Africa tries to ignore the current status of INF which unfortunately, is not only to the interest of the parties concern but is of utmost important to the general welfare of peace and security within African continent.

This is why it is necessary that based on the pronouncements especially the recent judgement of ICJ, we should seek for transparency on Chagos Archipelago for the interest of peace. However, irrespective of the non binding nature of the judgement, yet recalling that Manila won a landmark case against China at an international tribunal. At the same time, recalling the position of United State of America which urged China to abide by the court ruling. Therefore, inline with spirit of fairness and unambiguity towards maintaining rule based order, it would be helpful if USA and Britain abide by the court ruling,  Bearing in mind that there is the need for leadership for which both USA and Britain as architects to current world order needs to uphold. This means living by example could help return the world on the right part of working within constructed world order. To this end, no doubt should be created towards protecting one of human greatest achievements on nuclear management-NPT. 

Finally, the onus is us to advocate for a world free from nuclear weapon especially within the continent of Africa even if the competing powers see no need for it. The decision to upend such Treaty as INF, opens the world to nuclear arms race is regrettable and unfortunate. We have come thus far and cannot allow great power tussle to steal the shine. The need to remain proactive to issue of nuclear weapon to safeguard the rest of the world from doom is now.

Celestine Chidi

Revanchism: Hawks and Doves In USA Foreign Policy

The play between this two dominant view point in USA foreign Policy is aimed at recovering lost status. And it worth saying that, USA and the West has kept the world safe from major war similar to WW1 or 2 under the current international order. The diminishing outlook of USA hegemony if ever has left room for various competing ideas, approach and methods. Whilst the doves and hawks varies on how America tackle, engage on various world issues, the problem the two ideas presents lies within the state of total confusion in terms of messages sent out at varying times. This only worsen the already messy world politics and creates room for anarchy to thrive. For this reason firstly, it is important to consider the issue bothering on North Korea and Iran. Secondly, US hegemony and Trumps offshore balance of power. 

 The absence of consistency on tackling the first is reflected on haphazard policy objective given the competing interests for relevance between the two-hawks and doves. 

At various times in the USA grand strategy-liberal internationalism, Isolationism and primacy, it has obvious that hawks and doves have played a role in deciding how hard or soft such policy should be pushed to achieve results but never to this level. The liberal internationalism grand strategy, much of President Obama policy were mostly dovish in approach which resulted in negotiations for Iran nuclear deal and adopting a strategic patience on North Korea. He even tried to resist pressure from third parties on the ‘red line in Syria’ to avoid a new war. Although he failed into the Libyan trap and was unable to find a peaceful solution that would bring the country back to stability.

The current approach of stick and carrot is totally unprecedented because it is applied to different actors with similar motives or objectives. The North has achieved nuclear ambition whilst the Iranian regime is trying to get one-so they are acting against NPT objectives. Therefore, the general accepted fact that both Iran and North Korea are working against the current established international order lead by the West. Whilst the USA uses Iran to correct the mistakes made on the issue of North Korea with many years of inaction or supposed uncoordinated action that finally resulted to current situation of North Korean possessing nuclear weapons. The policy runs the risk of eroding trust, creating doubt and torpedoing possibilities of denuclearization simply because, when the USA abandoned a well worked out program to curtail Iran nuclear ambitions-JCPOA. The North Korean regime on the other side, sees an opportunity to play a double game, given heightened skepticism on USA commitment to abide to agreement. So, denuclearization in principle remains unrealizable given the above except if the current White House administration finds a way to navigate through current miscalculation or quagmire in Iran nuclear deal. The reason is simple,  trust which is the bedrock to international agreement has been eroded by none commitment to P5+1 accepted Treaty formula. To this end, we can read between the line to point to what states potentially can do or what their motives might be, although not totally laid out. 

Now given the above consideration, the big question is: what is the tactics or end game brought in by the North Korean in negotiations with or without knowing the intentions of the USA? what is Iran going to do next after deciding to breach the agreement? Does North Korea hope to fully denuclearize or is the regime seeking opportunities beyond this maybe sanctions relief? My bet would be that on the last question, the North would play hard ball too, this is because the game of indecision-dovish and hawkish proponents within the admission has left the White House between the rocks and hard place. The first and second question resultant outcome arose from the indecisions resulting from the competing approach of the two approach.The stalled Venezuela situation is a case in point. 

With all options for Iran being screwed tight, the latest followed the sanction on Iran foreign Minister, we might be back to a long unending journey of trials and errors, where Iran dogs-in and USA adopt a measure stricter or less. My bet is, the current carrot and stick adopted by Trump administration is hard to predict of possible outcome. The Revanchism of Bolton who represents the hawks and the moderate in the person the President Trump, are in battle of unending outcome steeped in errors and without insurance. The international community should brace for a long, protracted journey. The possibility of a results with the current position being maintained-sending mixed messages that requires rather a clear approach, is simply ambiguous and far from over. Although I can bet, Trump would not succumb to war anytime soon but this approach leave nothing but confusion. 

Celestine Chidi

Africa: Raining Youths, Overflown with Grannies

One of the most important issue not been political attended to, is the rising African underutilized growing youthful population. According to UNDP Africa, by the year ‘2055, the age bracket of 15-24 is expected to be “more than double”2015 total of 226million population.’

Graphics of the report 

The emphasis on ‘more than double’ is an indication that Africa is already blessed with youthful age which is supposed to be a reflection of growth. Unfortunately, this is not so because, the continent is marred with unemployment, underdevelopment arising from bad governance, mismanagement, conflicts and wars.

To make the matter worse, the youths are hardly involved in the decision making process of the various government and agencies within the states in the continent. It would have been a common practice that, youths are to inform decisions that directly affect their lives. But this is hardly so because, older generation saturates the length and breadth of all institutions of the states rendering any possibility of great innovation. With an exception of few states.

Youths and Resultant Benefits to the Continent

Of the avowed importance of youths, are their risk tendency and goal getting temerity. The combination of this two above gives room for innovation. The youthful population of Africa is underutilized and this poses huge problem and an explosive outcome for the future. There is growing number of youths involved in crime -militancy and other high crimes, this arose out of contingency rather than necessity giving their inactivity and meaningful engagement. The migration and youth drain in the continent should be a matter of concern to anyone in the position of authority. The majority of these, take the odious journey and died in the Mediterranean Sea. The reason for these among many others, arises from the fact that they are sincerely fighting to make a living, become meaningful, play a part but for lack of, have to risk it all to where they can be utilized. As such, to many risk can be equated with and by betting their lives in search of greener pastures. 

Imagine what it would have been, had there been opportunities created for them in all sectors not limited to the economic sphere alone but also, in the decision making process. 

Many of the youths, see their currently status in the continent as just ‘takers’ rather than ‘makers’ of their lives and destiny. The statistics of the 55 states within the continent body-African Union, it is not surprising that only a fraction of these states can be said to be seriously addressing the issue. This is not enough, there is a needs for deliberate action that encourages the process and should be factored into government policy by not ignoring this ticking time bomb that would inflict future difficulties. 

It is time for action directed and geared towards addressing this situation with greater emphasis on enforced implementing of youth participation in various aspects of all nation building. The current effort does little towards achieving the goal set out in SDG. The fact that, majority of the continents youthful percentage population are locked out on vital processes that shape their lives, destiny and future of Africa is a call for concern. Africa can gain more through meaningful participation of these set age bracket which can be considered ‘Fountain’ age. They represent a prosperous future likened to the ‘Silicon valley’ for the continent and her people than the current state of affairs ‘Ice age’ that sets the continent backwards which is a reflection of failed politics and policies of the past. 

Celestine Chidi

The architect, the player and the deal maker: Love Triangle of matchmaking.

In analyzing the current relationship between South Korea, North Korea and America, one can draw the following probable variables: (>1 or <1) as possible outcome. Greater, implying that something is achievable whilst less than indicates that nothing gets achieved in current diplomatic effort. This could give rise to or result in a zero sum or win win outcome as far as the politics of Korean Peninsula is concerned. 

The Sunshine policy which was scuttled during the second Bush administration points to lack of continuity, thus sending different message in different times to international communities and has come full circle in USA politics today. This leaves many partners, allies and foes as to what America wants. Had there been a continuity in policy that sends clear message for example to the North, maybe, the current situation wouldn’t arise bearing in mind that back then, the north had no weapon yet.

The today’s situation have given rise to an Architect, A Player and A Deal Maker which emerged after fire and fury, little rocket man description. 

Interest of all Three

When one looks at the current political  juggling between the three States concerned-South Korea, North Korea and America, each party is pushing hard to achieve their individual goal. At the moment, though not many would admit this, the north have the upper hand or momentum even though they are heavily sanctioned. Why do I say this, first they have the nuclear weapon. The sanctions apart, we all know that the Northern regime have survived at the expense of her citizens who are hardly surviving. To this end, the regime of Kim would consider having achieved the most unthinkable-possession of nuclear warhead, in the mist of threat and difficulties and so have won the first battle.

The Moon policy of which is not so different from the Sunshine policy of the past, should not be toppled by policy inconsistencies of partners especially America. The current South Korean leadership have staked a lot to get to this moment. One could see resumption in belligerence on the part of the North after many failed promises that the southern neighbor-economic cooperation have failed to materialize. Heavy reliance on stick at the expense of carrot was partly the reason for past policy failure and such giving rise to current Northern behavior. This identified reason can be managed through close coordinated communication. It is important to carry all parties along even in the face of desperation for quick result. 

The effort by Trump to be the first sitting America President to cross the demilitarized zone is worthy of note. Yet it can be marred by inconsistency giving the many messages that are being sent out, at one moment their is exchange of love letters and the next moment statements made openly are not followed. For instance the joint agreement on reduced military activities in the region aimed at supporting diplomacy should be allowed to maintain. After all, the North have not according to Trump conducted or tested any nuclear weapons or launched any ballistic weapons. The need not to give the North reason to resort to bellicose behavior is important given their past actions.

It is worth noting that in politics nothing is absolute until the unexpected happens. 

The regime of Kim as ‘The Player’ would not start a war in the Peninsula because they know that would be suicidal. The Moon regime as ‘The Architect’ needs peace with the Northern neighbor so achieved development would not go up in flames by war. President Trump as ‘The Deal Maker’ wants result to show that his three time engagement and border crossing into North Korea were not in vain. All three men are in pursuit of one thing ‘Result’ the question is, who amongst them can make the best of their love nest. National interest in the middle, the architect, player and deal marker are caught up is a love triangle that is still taking shape, would they ‘fall in’ or ‘fail out’ is the big question.

Finally, it is important to support any effort made towards achieving denuclearization even if as it stands now the North has held back in furtherance of nuclear test or ballistic launches. 

Celestine Chidi

Good bye to digital freedom after hackers: Return to Westphalian days?

Have we shot ourselves on the foot with globalization? This should be the talking point of all who values the benefits ushered in by the likes of Facebook, Twitter, WeChat, Amazon and the rest. There is no better place to access the benefit of globalization and its impact rather than in areas of digital communication technology. It has over the years marveled many and continues to influence lives in many ways or another-good or bad. Recently, not long after 9/11, the decoupling of digital communication benefits has left many asking, is it worth the hype and backlash? This has resulted to many states rolling back the red carpet. 

The war on terror and other related crackdown by government does poses one big question; how long shall we continue to enjoy the benefits of globalization with regards to digital freedom? Doesn’t it infringe on the freedom that individuals are meant to have? The digital space era once considered the greatest in human innovation has today become an area where increased government activity are so much felt. It’s status is considered as the provable ‘Trojan horse.’ It is held by some States with great disdain, to others with suspicion-State actors weaponized domain to undermine one another. To States, it poses unimaginable threat to sovereignty as various government would want us to believe. It is true, but aren’t we moving too fast, the end result is that, it is impeding on the rights of citizens to freedom of speech. 

The fact that the space has become explosive domains for both good and bad guys should not take away privacy which is sacrosanct to freedom itself. Just as the FBI director pointed out ‘Just as technology has become a force multiplier for the good guys, it has become a force multiplier for all sorts of bad guys – for terrorists, hackers, child predators, and more.’

The fight to control this space may well be justified given constant challenges posed by the enumerated societal ills within States not excluding the use of ransomware that could disable critical infrastructure to those of act of terror. It is important that every State act should be done within the limits of the law. It is well known that when States crawls are held to de-tangled is hard because every inch they occupy are never easily given back-limitless control of Westphalian style. The knowledge that some alien are snooping on us be it government or some weird fellow should make our skin rise in protest. The abuse of digital technology as a means of censorship or monitoring of citizens undermines all freedom most especially the kind herein discussed.

As the territory of states becomes much hard to distinguish, given the high infiltration of what government would call rogue element in ‘User-controlled default encryption’ which is said to be a real challenge for law enforcement. Notwithstanding, the line between government over reaction and inaction could blurs the line of common sense and by encroaching on this rights or free space becomes unattainable to freedom. The precedence set is problematic because autocratic regimes uses these excuse as opportunity to act with impunity on their citizens, as has been the case in recent days around the world. We have seen increased government activity in snooping on individuals with the view of arresting supposed threats but such threat to state continues unabated. This means some states are either using it to maintain their grip on power against the wishes of the people by targeting the opposition. The problem is that of blurring the lines of decency between ‘Privacy and security.’ The resultant effect are that fears are generated, policies are derived through emotional which gives room for complacency. 

The debate between ‘Privacy and security’ should be an on going discussion not subjectively driven. It requires an in-depth study that helps identifies cause as well as effect of today’s policies on our future freedom. 

Finally, a critical study should drive current problematic given the way various governments have gone about solely devising and enacting laws that suits them which is subject to abuse. The bad actors identified could use these flaws in the laws to advance their mode of operations keeping government caged-in to perpetual evil. This provides room to compromises the good citizens in between the fight for digital freedom-in government verses the bad crazy masked men or women in an unknown corner of the globe. 

The ‘Go Back’ that I believe in

There has been a huge interest on the statement made by the President of USA with respect to the four black Democratic Congresswomen. With no special interest in the racially connotative utterance of the said statement, I would rather concern myself with the phrase ‘go back’ as a subject of this discussion.

Rather than take offense with the entire statement, I prefer to stay within the two words and within which my stated discussion would ventilate my explanation. With this said, I find nothing wrong with the very phrase ‘go back,’ simply because it is as an organic word speculated on two words ‘origin or root.’ We all stake or claim to an origin or another-identity. That’s why we could identify with African Americans when the first person of color won and took office as the President. The same can be said of those who share his maternal home, schoolmates or those with whom in one way or another can identify or share in the said victory. They too can like anyone else stake a claim or ownership to his person based on any form that adequately answers to such. Taken from this point of view, we then can understand when someone says ‘go back,’ not as an offensive statement within the contest of whatever is said. After all, they might be pointing us to some relative past which we may have forgotten-connectivity or affinity, which resonates with us good or bad. The four individuals in question can identify with whom ever their ancestors were which at the end returns them back to place of origin. 

These four individuals even though stake a claim to USA as their state/nation, can still look back to their various roots, origin using the political position attained to change situations. Having said this, their position could best be served elsewhere other than where they currently work, this I say giving the general outcome of Obama administration which did little to nothing to advance interest of people of color from place of origin in the global world politics. 

From history we very much can deduce instances where without the word being uttered, has resulted in various positive outcomes. It has helped maintain transnational understanding of certain race and culture-this can be described as building from the outside. The white settlers from Europe to many parts of the world though they lay claim to those countries never forgot their common affinity to ancestral homes-from Canada to Australia to name a few. From Britain to other colonialist, they still share common purpose regardless of the terms or names they chose to call it-strategic partners, special relationships.

In modern times, we can point to groups like Israel lobby group an organization that pushing for Jewish interest -The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). Another that comes to mind is the South African lobby group AFRIFORUM, they share one thing in common fighting for their group interest. They remain the mouthpiece of one policy or programs aimed at achieving the overall interest of their group or groups, the same approach can be adopted by representatives of minorities in the USA body politics.

The black nations struggles to understand the world and the politics that informs it. We easily get emotional trapped, segregated or abandoned. Rather than playing by political rule book of naivety dictated by an organized, coherent structure that keeps us fractured, disorganized and decimated, we need to relearn what we already know even though we have outstripped. The same can be said of other minorities groups struggling to make sense or find a voice within the superstructure and of whom by own doing remain discombobulated by lack of right political rhythm.

This idea of going back’ rather than being conceived as derogatory should be a wake up call for action requiring synergies in other to confront the unbalanced world politics. Instead of feeling so discomforted, convoluted to the past ways, we should rather see oneness, utilize our voice to air our views with strong organizational or structured view point by lobbying to improve situations in our various places of origin. Working together to advocate accountability within the various developing countries which are the targets of the ‘shithole’ derogatory statement rather than being ‘axis’ through which these wrong are perpetuated. 

The continent has been victim to various forms of inhuman acts of men in the form of corporate corruption where big companies avoid taxes, engage in kickbacks, pollute our environments. You guys know all these, resources wars are raging as we get pitted against each other, use your voices rightfully, make use of your position to pursue projects that benefit the continent to build in peace. By the end of your term, looking back your achievement would resonate not just within America but within the continent where you stake your ancestral home originates. When someone so uses those words, ‘go back,’ you can be proud of the statement, leaving the emotional burden behind. The continents remains at the center of rob and rot from within and outside, there is need for fearsome representatives. 

‘Go back,’ should be a motivation for real action towards getting better results.There are many nationalities in America, the Asian American for instance, may identify with this differently. They may have carved a niche in what it means to be an American far better than other nationalities. From the Chinese, Japanese to name a few, none continues to struggle so hard in comparison to the descendants of American slaves and the Latinos. Why? The answer is not simple but requires we do things differently, look beyond America, establish strong linkages that survives past any given ideology. We need to suppress our emotions because it play into the victimhood mentality for which we are ascribed to as aid-filled underdeveloped nations.

As an African, am tired of being apologetic to the mistakes of our past and failures to take opportunity/advantage, remaining self defeating. We can claim our place in history not by being exotically too wishful or sympathetic seekers. We need to curb our emotive tendencies and face realpolitik rather than victimhood politics built on divided and ruled. These were the same politics that has led us to nowhere, kept us down because we remain tools in the hands of our detractors. 

The go back’ should become a new found love song that reminds us that, we have a place in this world. To secure such place we don’t have to throw in towels, we don’t need to complain,because when we do, we lose focus. What we simply needs do is fight and get the result, occupy “The” position and others would take us serious. So henceforth, keep the emotional baggage somewhere far away, then quietly, articulately and strategically find our rightful place in the world for ‘We are no bagger-nations.’

Finally, let’s keep this question close always, what leverage do we have over and above our oppressors? Currently, it is ‘absolutely nothing.’ The very reason we need to act now and make it known that our resolve is none negotiable. 

Celestine Chidi